- The Phillies are -115 favorites vs the Twins
- Phillies vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | NSPA
The Philadelphia Phillies () visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins () on Tuesday, July 23, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Phillies are 63-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 47-52 ATS.
Phillies vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 10-4, 2.73 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 3-1, 3.53 ERA
Phillies vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | O | ||
| Twins | U |
Phillies vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 59.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.75 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+9.95 Units / 41% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 83 games (+21.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 55 of their last 85 games (+21.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 82 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 83 games (+12.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 84 games (+10.20 Units / 7% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+12.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games (+10.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+7.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 79 games (+7.00 Units / 6% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 52-48 against the Run Line (+3.35 Units / 2.8% ROI).
- 63-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.75 Units / 4.09% ROI
- 45-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.55 Units / -9.54% ROI
- 50-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.35 Units / 0.32% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 47-52 against the Run Line (-5.75 Units / -4.61% ROI).
- 55-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -1.4% ROI
- 50-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 0.7% ROI
- 45-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.3 Units / -9.52% ROI
Twins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Twins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Twins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Twins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -150 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .103 (25-for-243) against Zack Wheeler with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .152 (30-for-198) against Zack Wheeler this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 98th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (2,137/4,989) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (529/1,257) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .444 (16 GB hits out of 36 GBs) against Simeon Woods Richardson with runners on base this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .429 (9 GB hits out of 21 GBs) against Simeon Woods Richardson with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .244 — second Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .212 (11 Total Bases / 52 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .369 — 95th Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson has allowed an OPS of just .544 (125 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .750 — 94th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 12-2 (.857) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .545.
The Phillies are 54-7 (.885) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Phillies are 15-10 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Twins are 54-17 (.761) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .622.
The Twins are 183-4 (.979) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Twins are 17-96 (.150) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Twins are 44-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .944.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins have scored 1.90 runs per game (188/99) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.41.
The Twins have scored 1.80 runs per game (470/261) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.45.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .792 (1,205 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .780 (932 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 28% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .183 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 248 of 3,666 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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