- The Braves are -185 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Braves Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Pirates / Braves TV Channel: BSSE | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-185) on Saturday, June 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Pirates are 39-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 38-42 ATS.
Pirates vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 4-0, 2.14 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 7-3, 2.99 ERA
Pirates vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -130 | O 9 -120 | +150 |
| Braves | -1.5 +105 | U 9 +100 | -185 |
Pirates vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.75 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 37 games (+18.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.25 Units / 49% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 70 games (+17.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 37 games (+8.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 42 games (+4.55 Units / 8% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 66 games (+24.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+8.34 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+3.05 Units / 35% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 42-39 against the Run Line (-0.54 Units / -0.51% ROI).
- 39-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.4 Units / -5.69% ROI
- 37-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.7 Units / -7.46% ROI
- 40-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.13 Units / 0.15% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 38-42 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -4.53% ROI).
- 45-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.6 Units / -7.7% ROI
- 29-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.2 Units / -26.53% ROI
- 48-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.15 Units / 18.22% ROI
Braves vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Braves vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Braves vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Braves vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton (ATL) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| Martin Perez (PIT) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has struck out 40% (20/50) of right-handed batters he faced this month (4 games) — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 50% (10 SO in 20 PAs) with runners in scoring position this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has thrown off-speed pitches 80% of the time (41/51) on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 34% (61 SO in 181 PAs) this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .157 (18 Total Bases / 115 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .361 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (150/247) against Max Fried this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (60/89) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .139 (16-for-115) against Max Fried when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .224 — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are 55-13 (.809) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .737.
The Pirates are just 20-31 (.392) after a road win since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Pirates are just 15-16 (.484) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Pirates are just 72-103 (.411) after a win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are just 2-7 (.222) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Braves are 5-3 (.625) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Braves are 50-52 (.490) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 17-77 (.181) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .103.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .642 (2,199 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters have 55 strikeouts in 134 PA’s (41%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,425 of 15,589 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed a run 35% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 6 of 52 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 50% of their games since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.5 MPH this season (1,858 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Braves vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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