- The Braves are -185 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Braves Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Pirates / Braves TV Channel: Roku
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-200) on Sunday, June 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 11:35am EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Pirates are 39-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 38-43 ATS.
Pirates vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 3-6, 4.02 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 1-3, 5.34 ERA
Pirates vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -125 | O 9 +100 | +165 |
| Braves | -1.5 +105 | U 9 -120 | -200 |
Pirates vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 58.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.75 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 37 games (+18.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.25 Units / 49% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 71 games (+18.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 38 games (+8.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games (+6.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 43 games (+5.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 67 games (+25.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+9.34 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+2.05 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 43-39 against the Run Line (+0.46 Units / 0.43% ROI).
- 39-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -6.68% ROI
- 37-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.7 Units / -8.48% ROI
- 41-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.13 Units / 1.26% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 38-43 against the Run Line (-5.2 Units / -5.55% ROI).
- 46-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.6 Units / -6.91% ROI
- 29-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.2 Units / -27.36% ROI
- 49-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.15 Units / 19.09% ROI
Braves vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
Braves vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jarred Kelenic (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Braves vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Braves vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 4.5 +140 | 4.5 -185 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (47/139) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Bailey Falter has struck out just 15% (39/263) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .272 (34-for-125) against Bailey Falter when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — 11th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (111/581) against Bailey Falter this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 41% (64/157) against Spencer Schwellenbach this month (4 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 99th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has not allowed a home run in any of the last 20.2 innings he’s appeared — Cristopher Sanchez has the longest active streak at 68.2.
Hitters have swung at 58% of Spencer Schwellenbach’s pitches (201/349) this month (4 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has a strike rate of 72% (253/349) this month (4 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 99th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are just 3-23 (.115) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Pirates are just 29-48 (.377) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Pirates are just 16-25 (.390) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 43-55 (.439) after a home win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are just 2-7 (.222) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Braves are 5-3 (.625) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Braves are 34-65 (.343) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Braves are 17-77 (.181) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .103.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .497 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Pirates are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Pirates hitters have 28 extra-base hits out of 111 total hits (just 25%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates hitters have 413 strikeouts in 1,211 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,428 of 15,624 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 62 of 941 batters (7%) this month (25 games) — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 26 of 437 batters (6%) over the last 14 days — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have won 36% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.4 MPH (1,884 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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