- The Brewers are -165 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Brewers TV Channel: BSWI | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-165) on Tuesday, May 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Pirates are 19-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 22-19 ATS.
Pirates vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Quinn Priester 0-3, 3.80 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Joe Ross 1-4, 4.80 ERA
Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 -110 | +140 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +120 | U 8.5 -110 | -165 |
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 57.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 24 games (+17.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+14.30 Units / 159% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 24 games (+12.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+12.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.35 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 36 games (+20.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Blake Perkins has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 28 games (+16.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 37 games (+15.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 41 games (+13.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+12.65 Units / 35% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.13 Units / 40% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 21-21 against the Run Line (-2.09 Units / -3.73% ROI).
- 19-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.1 Units / -12.12% ROI
- 18-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.8 Units / -10.35% ROI
- 21-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.63 Units / 3.54% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 22-19 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -0.43% ROI).
- 24-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.9 Units / 14.56% ROI
- 25-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.7 Units / 17.11% ROI
- 16-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.3 Units / -25% ROI
Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Quinn Priester (PIT) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Joe Ross (MIL) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (47/75) against Quinn Priester this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 64% (29/45) against Quinn Priester this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (9/75) against Quinn Priester this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 11% (5/45) against Quinn Priester this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ross has walked 8 of 63 batters (13%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Joe Ross has located his fastball up for a strike just 48% (81/168) of the time this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 60% — third Percentile.
Joe Ross has located his fastball inside 48% of the time (143/295) this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 96th Percentile.
Joe Ross has thrown his slider 38% of the time (63/164) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 93rd Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Pirates are just 14-21 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 27-41 (.397) after a road win since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Pirates are just 25-25 (.500) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .616.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 27-51 (.346) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Brewers are 41-96 (.299) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Brewers are 33-29 (.532) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Brewers are just 2-79 (.025) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .325 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .384.
The Pirates are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .177 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have drawn 30 walks in 260 PA’s (12%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Brewers are batting just .233 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.16 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against LHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have not walked any of the 55 batters that they have faced when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
The average home run distance against the Pirates pitchers this season is 405.7 feet — highest in MLB; League Avg: 396.0
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,316 of 14,096 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers have allowed 3.94 runs per game (406/103) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.54.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Brewers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Brewers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.2 MPH since the 2022 season (8,790 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8
Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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