- The Yankees are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Yankees Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Pirates / Yankees TV Channel: YES | SNPT | MLBN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-130) on Saturday, September 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in New York City, NY.
This season, the Pirates are 75-85 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 83-77 ATS.
Pirates vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 11-3, 1.99 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Gil 15-6, 3.27 ERA
Pirates vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -210 | O 7 -115 | +110 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +170 | U 7 -105 | -130 |
Pirates vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 43 games (+13.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Walks Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+12.35 Units / 112% ROI)
- Billy Cook has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+11.30 Units / 226% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 17 away games (+9.15 Units / 51% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 17 away games (+8.60 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 49 games (+26.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 35 games (+15.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 20 games at home (+15.45 Units / 77% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 36 games (+14.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+14.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 72 away games (+9.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.30 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 66 of their last 121 games (+5.75 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 103 games (+18.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 68 of their last 126 games (+13.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+8.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+8.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+2.45 Units / 10% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 84-76 against the Run Line (+0.7 Units / 0.34% ROI).
- 75-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -11 Units / -5.93% ROI
- 75-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.35 Units / -7.51% ROI
- 80-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -0.75% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 83-77 against the Run Line (+10.2 Units / 5.3% ROI).
- 93-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.35 Units / -4.86% ROI
- 84-70 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.5 Units / 3.68% ROI
- 70-84 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.25 Units / -12.67% ROI
Yankees vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
Yankees vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jon Berti (NYY) | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Yankees vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Yankees vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Gil (NYY) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 6.5 -145 | 6.5 +110 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has allowed an OPS of just .558 (508 PA’s) since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .720 — 99th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has an ERA of 1.25 (64.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 4.05 — 99th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 46% (35 SO in 77 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 14.0 innings pitched — Jose A. Ferrer has the longest active streak at 24.2.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Gil has walked 38 of 252 batters (15%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
Luis Gil has walked 76 of 613 batters (12%) this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .186 (98-for-527) against Luis Gil since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 98th Percentile.
Luis Gil has allowed a slugging percentage of just .244 (49 Total Bases / 201 ABs) versus the top of the order this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .435 — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Pirates are just 6-44 (.120) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 18-30 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 7-37 (.159) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Pirates are just 36-137 (.208) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Yankees are 27-20 (.574) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Yankees are 47-10 (.825) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .643.
The Yankees are 31-16 (.660) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Yankees are 78-23 (.772) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .627.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .501 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Pirates hitters have 1,374 strikeouts in 5,404 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .497 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .303 (5,404 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 216 walks in 1,778 PA’s (12%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 659 walks in 6,171 PA’s (11%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 35 walks in 229 PA’s (15%) against LHP this month (20 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,684 of 18,586 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Pirates have won 35% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 51% of their games on the road this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
In games when their opponents scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees won just just 14% of the time in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have an ERA of 3.76 (1413.1 IP) on the road since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.32.
Yankees vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Yankees – No Injuries Reported
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
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