- The Rays are -135 favorites vs the Royals
- Rays vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Rays / Royals TV Channel: BSKC | BSUN
The Tampa Bay Rays (-130) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+110) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Rays are 43-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 50-38 ATS.
Rays vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Zach Eflin 4-5, 3.92 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Alec Marsh 6-5, 4.19 ERA
Rays vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -105 | -130 |
| Royals | +1.5 -150 | U 8.5 -115 | +110 |
Rays vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 56.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+20.00 Units / 286% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 31 games (+18.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+14.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+12.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+12.00 Units / 120% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 55 of their last 83 games (+25.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 23 away games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 77 games (+7.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 away games (+6.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.75 Units / 43% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 46 games at home (+14.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+11.24 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 46 games at home (+6.00 Units / 10% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 41-45 against the Run Line (-7.2 Units / -6.3% ROI).
- 43-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.95 Units / -8.23% ROI
- 42-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.8 Units / -4.03% ROI
- 42-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -4.42% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 50-38 against the Run Line (+4.39 Units / 3.62% ROI).
- 48-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.25 Units / 7.83% ROI
- 36-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.7 Units / -17.48% ROI
- 48-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.2 Units / 8.54% ROI
Royals vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Royals vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Royals vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Royals vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Marsh (KC) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
| Zach Eflin (TB) | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Eflin has walked 7 of 361 batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 3 of 201 right-handed batters (1%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 98th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has not walked any of the 135 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 13 of 559 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Alec Marsh has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 95.8 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since last season (68 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 90.3
Alec Marsh has walked 35 of 276 batters (13%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 40% (20/50) against Alec Marsh when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (10/35) against Alec Marsh — tied for 11th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 11th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Rays are just 20-39 (.339) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Rays are 103-5 (.954) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Rays are 75-38 (.664) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Rays are 109-26 (.807) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Royals are just 23-54 (.299) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Royals are just 15-33 (.312) after a road win since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Royals are just 20-95 (.174) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 35-38 (.479) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .620.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have scored first in 69% of their road games since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
27% of Rays hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays are batting .265 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 49% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .280 (4,432 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Royals are batting just .223 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The average home run distance against the Royals pitchers this season is 405.3 feet — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 397.2
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
- Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
- Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
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