- The Reds are -110 favorites vs the Brewers
- Reds vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Reds / Brewers TV Channel: BSOH | BSWI | ESPN+
The Cincinnati Reds (+100) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-120) on Sunday, August 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Reds are 56-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 61-55 ATS.
Reds vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 9-4, 3.99 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +165 | O 8 -105 | +100 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -200 | U 8 -115 | -120 |
Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 30 games (+29.10 Units / 97% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+13.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 27 games (+13.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Stolen Bases Over in 14 of his last 25 away games (+11.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+10.30 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 25 games at home (+22.50 Units / 90% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 35 games (+17.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+14.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+13.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+13.05 Units / 47% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 99 games (+10.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 102 games (+7.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 101 games (+7.65 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 33 away games (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.75 Units / 19% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 63 of their last 112 games (+16.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 116 games (+11.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 42 games at home (+9.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 65 of their last 116 games (+8.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games at home (+6.40 Units / 13% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 65-52 against the Run Line (+6.6 Units / 4.26% ROI).
- 56-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.3 Units / -5.18% ROI
- 54-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.75 Units / -8.31% ROI
- 58-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.7 Units / -1.33% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 61-55 against the Run Line (+3.35 Units / 2.19% ROI).
- 67-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.7 Units / 7.94% ROI
- 64-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +14.1 Units / 11.13% ROI
- 46-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.7 Units / -19.21% ROI
Brewers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Brewers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of .401 (394 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 175 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 25% (18/71) against Nick Lodolo on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has spotted his fastball inside for a strike just 56% (492/887) of the time since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 175 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OPS of .909 (394 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 175 total IP; League Avg: .712 — 0 Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .074 (6-for-81) against Colin Rea on sliders this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .219 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (169/864) against Colin Rea this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .186 (34-for-183) against Colin Rea when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 90th Percentile.
Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 18% (35 SO in 198 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 31-34 (.477) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Reds are just 11-21 (.344) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are 12-20 (.375) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Reds are just 3-10 (.231) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 34-72 (.321) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Brewers are 36-33 (.522) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Brewers are 29-22 (.569) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .429.
The Brewers are 22-13 (.629) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .113 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Reds hitters have 32 strikeouts in 85 PA’s (38%) against LHP this month (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Reds hitters have 16 strikeouts in 35 PA’s (46%) against LHP over the past seven days (4 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .150 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 35 extra-base hits out of 132 total hits (just 27%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers hitters have chased 11% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .333 (3,329 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .292 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Reds pitchers have walked 352 of 3,902 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.24 (802.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.73 (1029.2 IP) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- DL Hall (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Joe Ross (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Greg Allen (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Triceps, 60-Day IL
- Abner Uribe (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 10-Day IL
- Oliver Dunn (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Nick Martini (Cincinnati Reds): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Carson Spiers (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Tejay Antone (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Luke Maile (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 10-Day IL
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Day-To-Day
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Brent Suter (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 7-Day IL
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