- The Brewers are -145 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Brewers Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Reds / Brewers TV Channel: BSOH | BSWI | MLBN
The Cincinnati Reds (+120) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-145) on Friday, June 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Reds are 33-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 36-32 ATS.
Reds vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Hunter Greene 4-2, 3.63 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 4-3, 3.99 ERA
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 -105 | +120 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 -115 | -145 |
Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 35 games (+18.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 18 games (+14.50 Units / 81% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+12.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 37 games (+10.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+10.50 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games at home (+20.00 Units / 250% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 21 games at home (+10.25 Units / 48% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 23 games at home (+8.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+7.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+6.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+11.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 29 away games (+10.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games (+8.35 Units / 13% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 68 games (+11.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+9.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 68 games (+8.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+7.20 Units / 32% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 38-30 against the Run Line (+5.75 Units / 6.41% ROI).
- 33-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -2.95% ROI
- 30-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.15 Units / -12.15% ROI
- 35-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 2.48% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 36-32 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 0.48% ROI).
- 40-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.6 Units / 14.03% ROI
- 37-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.45 Units / 8.63% ROI
- 28-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.55 Units / -16.77% ROI
Brewers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Brewers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene (CIN) | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 +110 |
| Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -140 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (47/117) against Hunter Greene on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .443 (58-for-131) against Hunter Greene on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .342 — first Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .840 (110 Total Bases / 131 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .581 — first Percentile.
55% of Hunter Greene’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has struck out 33% (47/141) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 32% (125 SO in 386 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .152 (16-for-105) against Freddy Peralta when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .224 — 91st Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% (185/570) against Freddy Peralta this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 96th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 24-28 (.462) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Reds are just 1-6 (.143) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 47-19 (.712) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Reds are just 52-53 (.495) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .636.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 30-55 (.353) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Brewers are 33-15 (.688) after a home loss since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Brewers are 11-16 (.407) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .188.
The Brewers are 44-100 (.306) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting .341 on the road this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Reds are batting just .132 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Reds hitters have drawn 90 walks in 843 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .152 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have a groundball batting average of .295 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Brewers are batting just .234 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
10% of Brewers’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,430/14,816 PA’s) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .338 (2,006 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 192 of 2,046 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.73 (2045.1 IP) since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have 295 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
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