- The Brewers are -135 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Brewers Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Reds / Brewers TV Channel: BSOH | BSWI
The Cincinnati Reds (+115) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-135) on Sunday, June 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Reds are 34-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 37-33 ATS.
Reds vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 3-5, 4.59 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea 5-2, 3.31 ERA
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -190 | O 9 +100 | +115 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -120 | -135 |
Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games (+20.70 Units / 173% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 37 games (+18.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+15.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 48 games (+9.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 37 games (+9.55 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games at home (+19.00 Units / 211% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+8.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 games at home (+8.25 Units / 40% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 54 games (+11.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 31 away games (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 52 games (+8.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+8.05 Units / 12% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 70 games (+10.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+9.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 70 games (+8.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+7.70 Units / 31% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 39-31 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 5.38% ROI).
- 34-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -2.33% ROI
- 31-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.15 Units / -11.84% ROI
- 36-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 2.15% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 37-33 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 1% ROI).
- 41-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.95 Units / 12.78% ROI
- 38-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.45 Units / 8.4% ROI
- 29-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -16.5% ROI
Brewers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Joey Ortiz (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Brewers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea (MIL) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Frankie Montas (CIN) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 24% (104/439) against Frankie Montas since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Frankie Montas has walked 14 of 102 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 31% (51/164) against Frankie Montas with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 39% — second Percentile.
Frankie Montas has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 1 double play in 40 opportunities (3%) this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 11% — fourth Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 16% (48 SO in 301 PAs) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 21% (61/290) against Colin Rea this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — fifth Percentile.
Colin Rea has struck out just 17% (27/163) of left-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.
Colin Rea has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 17 innings — Dane Dunning has the longest active streak at 19.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 1-6 (.143) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 24-28 (.462) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Reds are just 52-53 (.495) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .635.
The Reds are just 48-19 (.716) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 30-56 (.349) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Brewers are 34-15 (.694) after a home loss since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Brewers are 58-55 (.513) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Brewers are 60-39 (.606) after a loss since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .291 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.71 (1022.1 IP) on the road since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have 86 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd fewest in MLB.
Brewers pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
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