- The Cardinals are -135 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Reds / Cardinals TV Channel: BSOH | BSMW
The Cincinnati Reds (+120) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-140) on Wednesday, September 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT in St. Louis, MO.
This season, the Reds are 71-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 72-72 ATS.
Reds vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Brandon Williamson 0-0, 2.25 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Lance Lynn 6-4, 4.04 ERA
Reds vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -120 | +120 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 +100 | -140 |
Reds vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 away games (+25.50 Units / 170% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 42 games (+20.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+13.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+13.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 39 games (+12.65 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Masyn Winn has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 25 games at home (+30.50 Units / 122% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+15.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+15.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Pedro Pages has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+13.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Pedro Pages has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+13.05 Units / 37% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 74 of their last 128 games (+14.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 75 of their last 131 games (+11.60 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 46 away games (+8.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 67 of their last 130 games (+6.30 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.25 Units / 36% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 74 games (+5.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+5.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+2.65 Units / 8% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 82-64 against the Run Line (+10.5 Units / 5.42% ROI).
- 71-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -3.04% ROI
- 67-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.95 Units / -7.41% ROI
- 71-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -1.9% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 72-72 against the Run Line (-8.35 Units / -4.25% ROI).
- 72-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.7 Units / -5.66% ROI
- 68-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.5 Units / -6.04% ROI
- 70-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -3.27% ROI
Cardinals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Luken Baker (STL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Cardinals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Masyn Winn (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Cardinals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Cardinals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Williamson (Cin) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Lance Lynn (STL) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (9/56) against Brandon Williamson over the last 14 days — 8th lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 28% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 13% (4/31) against Brandon Williamson on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — 3rd lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.
Brandon Williamson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 15 double plays in 86 opportunities (17%) since last season — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.
Brandon Williamson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 45% (14/31) this month (2 games) — 15th lowest among among 140 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 62% — 10th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 74% of Lance Lynn’s pitches in the zone (2,509/3,400) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 100th Percentile.
Lance Lynn has a strike rate of just 61% (960/1,584) in two strike counts since last season — tied for 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 64% — ninth Percentile.
24 of Lance Lynn’s 89 breaking pitch strikeouts (27%) have been backdoor since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 95th Percentile.
30 of Lance Lynn’s 139 breaking pitch strikeouts (22%) have been backdoor since the 2022 season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 92nd Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Reds are just 6-15 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Reds are just 20-30 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 3-55 (.052) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cardinals are 21-13 (.618) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Cardinals are just 24-38 (.387) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
The Cardinals are 38-18 (.679) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 58-1 (.983) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .150 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Reds are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Reds are batting just .227 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Reds are batting just .117 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are just 44-70 (.376) against the run line (-30.8% ROI) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of just .293 (1,575 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Cardinals are batting just .238 against LHP since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Cardinals are batting .245 with two outs since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,666 of 18,003 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- St. Louis Cardinals – No Injuries Reported
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
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