- The Cardinals are -175 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Reds / Cardinals TV Channel: BSOH | BSMW | MLBN
The Cincinnati Reds (+140) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-165) on Thursday, September 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:15pm EDT in St. Louis, MO.
This season, the Reds are 71-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 72-73 ATS.
Reds vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Jakob Junis 4-0, 2.84 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Sonny Gray 12-9, 3.85 ERA
Reds vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -155 | O 7.5 -120 | +140 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 +100 | -165 |
Reds vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 56.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 away games (+24.50 Units / 153% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 43 games (+19.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 47 games (+14.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 43 games (+12.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 39 games (+12.65 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Masyn Winn has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 24 games at home (+21.50 Units / 90% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 33 games (+16.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+16.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 38 games (+13.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- Pedro Pages has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 36 games (+12.05 Units / 33% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 75 of their last 129 games (+15.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 132 games (+12.60 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 131 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 47 away games (+7.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.30 Units / 45% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+5.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 24 games (+1.65 Units / 5% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 83-64 against the Run Line (+11.5 Units / 5.89% ROI).
- 71-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.25 Units / -3.59% ROI
- 67-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.05 Units / -8.04% ROI
- 72-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -1.27% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 72-73 against the Run Line (-9.35 Units / -4.74% ROI).
- 73-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.7 Units / -5.03% ROI
- 68-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -6.69% ROI
- 71-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.15 Units / -2.62% ROI
Cardinals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jordan Walker (STL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Cardinals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Cardinals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Cardinals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray (STL) | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -125 |
| Jakob Junis (CIN) | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -155 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
30 of Jakob Junis’ breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor since the 2022 season — most among NL Relievers; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
19 of Jakob Junis’ breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor since last season — tied for most among NL Relievers; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Jakob Junis has a first-pitch strike rate of 71% (397/562) since last season — tied for highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Jakob Junis has a first-pitch strike rate of 74% (146/196) this season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 35% (140/401) against Sonny Gray this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strikeout rate of 57% (186 SO in 325 PAs) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strikeout rate of 54% (104 SO in 192 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strikeout rate of 31% (72 SO in 234 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Reds are just 13-26 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 6-16 (.273) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cardinals are just 24-38 (.387) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
The Cardinals are 21-13 (.618) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Cardinals are 39-18 (.684) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 43-27 (.614) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .150 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Reds are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Reds are batting just .232 this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Reds are batting just .117 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters are slugging just .378 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of just .684 (3,157 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of just .306 (3,157 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of just .292 (1,597 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- St. Louis Cardinals – No Injuries Reported
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
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