- The Cubs are -140 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Cubs Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
- Reds / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | BSOH | MLBN
The Cincinnati Reds (+120) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-140) on Friday, September 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Reds are 76-83 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 77-82 ATS.
Reds vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 11-8, 3.44 ERA
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -210 | O 6.5 -115 | +120 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +170 | U 6.5 -105 | -140 |
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 11 away games (+19.75 Units / 180% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+13.55 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+13.30 Units / 53% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 away games (+12.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.45 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 33 games (+20.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Christian Bethancour has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 games (+20.00 Units / 118% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+16.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+11.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 40 games (+10.30 Units / 25% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 83 of their last 144 games (+14.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 80 of their last 141 games (+11.40 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 143 games (+6.90 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 53 away games (+6.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.25 Units / 44% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 62 games at home (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 54 games (+11.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 72 games (+9.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 48 games (+9.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+7.55 Units / 24% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 88-71 against the Run Line (+7.55 Units / 3.57% ROI).
- 76-83 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.95 Units / -3.73% ROI
- 73-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.65 Units / -7.77% ROI
- 78-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.45 Units / -1.41% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 77-82 against the Run Line (-18.2 Units / -8.56% ROI).
- 81-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -0.43% ROI
- 75-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.9 Units / -6.22% ROI
- 78-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.15 Units / -2.37% ROI
Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -1400 |
Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez (CIN) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Jameson Taillon (CHC) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Martinez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.4 MPH since last season (703 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% (91/283) against Nick Martinez on fastballs since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Martinez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.0 MPH against his fastballs since last season (283 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 90.8
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 25% (45/182) against Nick Martinez vs left-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has walked 9 of 309 right-handed batters (3%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (230/1,156) against Jameson Taillon this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 4 of 128 batters (3%) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 98th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 39 of 800 batters (5%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 83rd Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Reds are just 7-17 (.292) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 13-26 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are 13-8 (.619) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 64-12 (.842) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Cubs are 32-10 (.762) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .643.
The Cubs are just 55-49 (.529) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .150 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Reds are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Reds are batting just .225 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .228 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Cubs hitters have drawn 97 walks in 1,487 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs hitters are averaging just 3.75 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
The Cubs are batting .303 on the road this month (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Reds pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Reds pitchers this month (22 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 125 of 1,409 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 78 double plays in 1,108 opportunities (7%) this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.17 (705.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Chicago Cubs – No Injuries Reported
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
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