- The Mets are -155 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Reds / Mets TV Channel: SNY | BSOH
The Cincinnati Reds (+130) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-155) on Saturday, September 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Reds are 68-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 72-69 ATS.
Reds vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Jakob Junis 4-0, 3.16 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 7-9, 4.26 ERA
Reds vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -105 | +130 |
| Mets | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -115 | -155 |
Reds vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 away games (+28.50 Units / 238% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 31 games (+15.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 40 games (+11.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+22.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 21 games at home (+20.75 Units / 99% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+14.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+14.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+13.20 Units / 90% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 71 of their last 124 games (+12.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 51 games (+9.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 71 of their last 127 games (+7.55 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 42 away games (+5.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 32% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 82 games (+18.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 51 of their last 93 games (+15.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+13.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 83 games (+13.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 34 games at home (+13.10 Units / 32% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 79-63 against the Run Line (+9 Units / 4.8% ROI).
- 68-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.45 Units / -5% ROI
- 67-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.6 Units / -4.84% ROI
- 67-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.05 Units / -4.53% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 72-69 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -0.08% ROI).
- 77-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.35 Units / 3.03% ROI
- 70-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.95 Units / -1.26% ROI
- 65-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -11 Units / -7.28% ROI
Mets vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Mets vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Amed Rosario (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Mets vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Mets vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana (NYM) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
30 of Jakob Junis’ breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor since the 2022 season — most among NL Relievers; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Jakob Junis has a first-pitch strike rate of 75% (134/179) this season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .384 (33-for-86) against Jakob Junis on low fastballs since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .270 — first Percentile.
Jakob Junis has a first-pitch strike rate of 71% (385/545) since last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — 98th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 56% (385/683) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (1,139/1,938) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 49% (402/826) when ahead in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (1,446/2,443) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Reds are just 12-24 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 3-52 (.055) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Reds are just 6-15 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mets are 6-53 (.102) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Mets are 88-35 (.715) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Mets are just 60-6 (.909) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .946.
The Mets are 20-14 (.588) after a road loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .146 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Reds are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Reds are batting just .113 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Reds hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .347 (2,087 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Mets hitters are slugging .440 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .764 (1,411 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Mets have been successful on 56% of their hit & run attempts since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,657 of 17,868 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have walked 252 of 2,673 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 1,115 of 11,424 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
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