- The Reds are +100 favorites vs the Nationals
- Reds vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Reds / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | BSOH
The Cincinnati Reds (-105) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-115) on Sunday, July 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Reds are 47-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 56-43 ATS.
Reds vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott 9-6, 3.40 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 7-8, 3.51 ERA
Reds vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +155 | O 9 -105 | -105 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -190 | U 9 -115 | -115 |
Reds vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+18.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+17.00 Units / 243% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+18.30 Units / 183% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.60 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+11.50 Units / 88% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 81 games (+11.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 44 away games (+10.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 83 games (+9.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 49 games (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 away games (+7.65 Units / 36% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 91 games (+11.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 91 games (+10.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games (+7.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+5.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 55-44 against the Run Line (+7.35 Units / 5.71% ROI).
- 47-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.65 Units / -5.55% ROI
- 45-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -9.91% ROI
- 50-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 0.23% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 56-43 against the Run Line (+6.73 Units / 5.2% ROI).
- 46-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.15 Units / 7.85% ROI
- 47-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.6 Units / -4.25% ROI
- 47-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.22 Units / -4.77% ROI
Nationals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Nationals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Nationals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott (CIN) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andrew Abbott has walked 23 of 171 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has walked 7 of 27 batters (26%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has allowed an OBP of .556 (27 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .320 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 19% (22/118) against Andrew Abbott on sliders since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .500 (11-for-22) against Jake Irvin in his last two starts — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .246 — third Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (648/1,846) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 97th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (452/1,263) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 21% (77/371) against Jake Irvin with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Reds are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 2-11 (.154) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 28-39 (.418) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are 31-15 (.674) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Nationals are just 81-126 (.391) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Nationals are just 63-106 (.373) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Nationals are just 53-206 (.205) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .108 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Reds hitters are slugging just .145 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Reds hitters are slugging just .173 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Reds are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .949 (1,787 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.087.
Nationals hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Nationals hitters have just 2,171 strikeouts in 10,842 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – away
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
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