- The Reds are -110 favorites vs the Rays
- Reds vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Reds / Rays TV Channel: BSOH | BSUN
The Cincinnati Reds (-110) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-110) on Friday, July 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Reds are 49-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 50-53 ATS.
Reds vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 8-3, 3.55 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane Baz 0-1, 3.95 ERA
Reds vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +155 | O 7.5 -115 | -110 |
| Rays | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 -105 | -110 |
Reds vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Stolen Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 away games (+15.20 Units / 89% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 41 games (+14.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+10.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+9.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.60 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 32 games (+22.80 Units / 71% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+13.70 Units / 86% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+11.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+11.10 Units / 57% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 84 games (+11.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 86 games (+10.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 away games (+7.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 87 games (+6.15 Units / 6% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 63 of their last 100 games (+23.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 94 games (+10.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+7.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.05 Units / 49% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 57-45 against the Run Line (+7.35 Units / 5.47% ROI).
- 49-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.45 Units / -4.44% ROI
- 46-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.25 Units / -10.85% ROI
- 52-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.15 Units / 1.03% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 50-53 against the Run Line (-6.6 Units / -4.82% ROI).
- 52-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.95 Units / -6.25% ROI
- 50-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.8 Units / -4.23% ROI
- 50-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -4.15% ROI
Rays vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Rays vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario (TB) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Rays vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Curtis Mead (TB) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Rays vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
| Shane Baz (TB) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of just .111 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .160 (13 Total Bases / 81 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .400 — 100th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (534/1,186) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (182/409) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .364 (12-for-33) against Shane Baz this month (3 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .244 — third Percentile.
Shane Baz has allowed an OBP of .444 (27 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — tied for 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .323 — 11th Percentile.
Shane Baz has allowed an OPS of 1.053 (38 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .734 — seventh Percentile.
Shane Baz has a strikeout rate of just 11% (3 SO in 27 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 10th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Reds are just 1-10 (.091) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 2-12 (.143) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 28-33 (.459) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Reds are 11-18 (.379) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Rays are 44-14 (.759) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Rays are just 14-29 (.326) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Rays are 112-5 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Rays are just 21-43 (.328) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .110 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Reds hitters have 102 extra-base hits out of 253 total hits (40%) with two-strikes this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Reds are 32-15 (.681) against the run line (22.8% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .462.
Reds hitters are slugging just .147 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have 190 strikeouts in 583 PA’s (33%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .291 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 1,115 of 15,823 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Rays vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 7-Day IL
- Ryan Pepiot (Tampa Bay Rays): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Yandy Diaz (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
- Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Nick Martini (Cincinnati Reds): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Carson Spiers (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Tejay Antone (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Luke Maile (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 10-Day IL
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Day-To-Day
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Brent Suter (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 7-Day IL
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