- The Braves are -165 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals vs Braves Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Royals / Braves TV Channel: BSSE | BSKC
The Kansas City Royals (+155) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-190) on Saturday, September 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Royals are 85-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 74-84 ATS.
Royals vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 16-9, 3.03 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez 8-5, 2.04 ERA
Royals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -140 | O 7.5 -105 | +155 |
| Braves | -1.5 +115 | U 7.5 -115 | -190 |
Royals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Royals vs Braves and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 49 games (+21.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 23 games (+17.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 24 away games (+15.80 Units / 66% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 38 games (+13.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 35 games (+10.95 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 35 of his last 42 games (+23.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 38 games (+20.40 Units / 54% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+15.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+12.70 Units / 56% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+11.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 37 away games (+10.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+6.85 Units / 3% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 91 of their last 144 games (+37.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 41 games (+4.70 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+4.40 Units / 21% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 87-73 against the Run Line (+3.25 Units / 1.51% ROI).
- 85-75 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 1.83% ROI
- 69-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.05 Units / -13.83% ROI
- 85-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.4 Units / 4.77% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 74-84 against the Run Line (-13.8 Units / -7.19% ROI).
- 87-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.4 Units / -7.91% ROI
- 58-94 when betting on the total runs Over for -44.25 Units / -25.67% ROI
- 94-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +30 Units / 17.1% ROI
Braves vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Braves vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Yuli Gurriel (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Gio Urshela (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ramon Laureano (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Braves vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Michael Massey (KC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Braves vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo Lopez (ATL) | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +130 |
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 20% (134/665) against Seth Lugo this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — ninth Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown breaking pitches 46% of the time (662/1,433) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 96th Percentile.
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .167 vs left-handed batters in the 2022 season (10th best among qualified RPs)– 90th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has allowed a just .296 SLG versus the top of the order (second best)– 98th Percentile and .427 versus the bottom of the order this season (eighth worst among qualified SPs)– 14th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Reynaldo Lopez has an ERA of 1.21 (67.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 4.05 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .091 (9-for-99) against Reynaldo Lopez with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .145 (24-for-166) against Reynaldo Lopez with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .164 (37-for-225) against Reynaldo Lopez with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 99th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Royals are just 25-106 (.191) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
The Royals are just 4-49 (.075) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 21-65 (.244) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .373.
The Royals are just 14-77 (.154) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Braves are 37-87 (.298) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Braves are just 2-7 (.222) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Braves are 88-40 (.688) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Braves are 35-63 (.357) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals are batting just .119 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Royals hitters have just 295 strikeouts in 1,499 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals hitters are slugging just .276 over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .287 (5,939 PA’s) on the road since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .822 (2,899 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Braves hitters are slugging .485 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Braves hitters are slugging .470 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Braves have barrels in 8% of PA’s in the 2023 season (512/6,249) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 2.97 (460.2 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.06.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
- Kansas City Royals – No Injuries Reported
Bet now on Royals vs Braves and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
