- The Royals are -105 favorites vs the Guardians
- Royals vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Royals / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | BSKC
The Kansas City Royals (+100) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on Tuesday, June 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Royals are 36-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 33-26 ATS.
Royals vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 9-1, 1.71 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie 2-3, 3.75 ERA
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -210 | O 8 +100 | +100 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +160 | U 8 -120 | -120 |
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+24.25 Units / 64% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 38 games (+21.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 38 games (+21.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Under in 38 of his last 48 games (+20.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 38 games (+18.20 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 37 games (+31.20 Units / 84% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 44 games (+15.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.15 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+9.90 Units / 55% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 57 games (+14.89 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 36% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 59 games (+15.62 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 59 games (+11.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+9.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 59 games (+8.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 59 games (+8.00 Units / 12% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 38-23 against the Run Line (+11.29 Units / 13.27% ROI).
- 36-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +12 Units / 16.68% ROI
- 26-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.2 Units / -13.94% ROI
- 32-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.3 Units / 4.99% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 33-26 against the Run Line (+11.35 Units / 16.1% ROI).
- 39-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.62 Units / 20.15% ROI
- 29-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.35 Units / 0.54% ROI
- 26-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -8.77% ROI
Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Nelson Velazquez (KC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Triston McKenzie (CLE) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of just .111 vs right-handed batters (fifth best)– 95th Percentile and .333 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (tied for fifth worst among qualified SPs)– 14th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has allowed an OBP of just .190 (58 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .300 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitless in 15 AB’s against Seth Lugo when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .202 — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has an ERA of 1.72 (78.1 IP)this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.49 — 98th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Triston McKenzie has walked 34 of 247 batters (14%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has walked 16 of 99 batters (16%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has walked 25 of 159 batters (16%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed an OPS of .916 (99 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .674 — fifth Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 15-90 (.143) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Royals are just 11-49 (.183) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .383.
The Royals are just 46-66 (.411) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Royals are just 23-50 (.315) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 36-131 (.216) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Guardians are 171-6 (.966) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Guardians are 30-27 (.526) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Guardians are 12-149 (.075) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 47% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of .391 (267 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .283 (4,047 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Royals have won just 51% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,880 strikeouts in 10,321 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Guardians are batting just .261 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The Royals won just 17% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Royals pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .256.
The Guardians have allowed 0.73 runs per game (43/59) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have won 45% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
- Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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