- The Royals are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
- Royals vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Royals / Nationals TV Channel: MAS2 | BSKC | MLBN
The Kansas City Royals (-175) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+145) on Thursday, September 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Royals are 84-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 87-71 ATS.
Royals vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 13-8, 3.31 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 6-13, 5.60 ERA
Royals vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | -1.5 -110 | O 8.5 -115 | -175 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | U 8.5 -105 | +145 |
Royals vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 62.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 47 games (+19.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 22 away games (+17.80 Units / 81% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Walks Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+14.55 Units / 55% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 36 games (+11.45 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Juan Yepez has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 25 games at home (+13.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+13.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 22 games (+10.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.20 Units / 37% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 23 games (+11.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 away games (+10.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 85 of their last 154 games (+7.15 Units / 3% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+10.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.35 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.80 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 150 games (+7.80 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.70 Units / 56% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 86-72 against the Run Line (+3.55 Units / 1.67% ROI).
- 84-74 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 1.86% ROI
- 68-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.05 Units / -14% ROI
- 84-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.5 Units / 4.89% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 87-71 against the Run Line (+3.85 Units / 1.85% ROI).
- 69-89 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -1.39% ROI
- 72-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.9 Units / -7.48% ROI
- 78-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -1.17% ROI
Nationals vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Nationals vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Dylan Crews (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Nationals vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Yuli Gurriel (KC) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +130 |
| Michael Wacha (KC) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 47% of the time (342/730) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 47% of the time (678/1,428) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .187 (43-for-230) against Michael Wacha when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .130 (15 GB hits out of 115 GBs) against Michael Wacha with the shift since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .313 (242-for-774) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .308 (160-for-519) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — third Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .660 (354 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .484 — second Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .838 (741 PA’s) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .684 — first Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Royals are just 24-106 (.185) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
The Royals are just 18-33 (.353) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Royals are just 4-49 (.075) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 14-77 (.154) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 59-237 (.199) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Nationals are just 59-84 (.413) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 838 strikeouts in 4,404 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .287 (5,868 PA’s) on the road since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .306 (8,863 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .304 (13,302 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .944 (2,193 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.087.
The Nationals are batting just .239 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .307 (2,391 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .514 with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .605.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 2.97 (460.2 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.07.
Royals pitchers won only 14% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .342 (4,247 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Nationals vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
- Kansas City Royals – No Injuries Reported
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