- The Tigers are -110 favorites vs the Reds
- Tigers vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Tigers / Reds TV Channel: ATV+
The Detroit Tigers (+105) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-125) on Friday, July 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Tigers are 39-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 50-37 ATS.
Tigers vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Reese Olson 2-8, 3.33 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Carson Spiers 2-1, 3.14 ERA
Tigers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -190 | O 9 -105 | +105 |
| Reds | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -115 | -125 |
Tigers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Vierling has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 26 games (+22.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+14.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.95 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+18.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 28 games (+16.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 70 games (+11.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 23 away games (+10.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+7.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.35 Units / 41% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 28 games at home (+13.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 71 games (+13.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 69 games (+12.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 37 games (+9.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games (+9.50 Units / 22% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 38-49 against the Run Line (-17.15 Units / -14.65% ROI).
- 39-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.65 Units / -12.55% ROI
- 46-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.15 Units / 7.71% ROI
- 35-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.6 Units / -16.91% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 50-37 against the Run Line (+9.1 Units / 7.82% ROI).
- 42-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -1.34% ROI
- 38-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.3 Units / -13.85% ROI
- 46-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 4.03% ROI
Reds vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Justyn-Henry Malloy (DET) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Reds vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Mark Canha (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Reds vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Mark Canha (DET) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Reds vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Reese Olson (DET) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Carson Spiers (CIN) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Reese Olson has thrown low pitches 65% of the time (243/374) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Reese Olson has thrown low pitches 65% of the time (243/374) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Reese Olson has thrown low pitches 63% of the time (641/1,020) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Reese Olson has thrown low pitches 64% of the time (509/797) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (14/50) against Carson Spiers in two-strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 46% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .266 (21-for-79) against Carson Spiers with two-strikes this season — 4th highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .158 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (14/50) against Carson Spiers in two-strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 46% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .266 (21-for-79) against Carson Spiers with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .158 — 0 Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Tigers are just 24-35 (.407) after a home win since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Tigers are just 25-107 (.189) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Tigers are 47-20 (.701) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .620.
The Tigers are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Reds are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 54-56 (.491) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Reds are just 9-18 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Tigers are batting just .308 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .359 against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .290 (11,541 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Tigers are batting just .274 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .157 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Reds are batting just .220 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Reds hitters have pulled 49% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .179 on pitches out of the zone since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Tigers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Tigers won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 207 of 2,211 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
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