- The Guardians are -120 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Twins / Guardians TV Channel: ATV+
The Minnesota Twins (+100) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on Friday, May 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Twins are 24-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 26-18 ATS.
Twins vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 1-0, 3.29 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie 2-3, 3.49 ERA
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -200 | O 8.5 -115 | +100 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +165 | U 8.5 -105 | -120 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 away games (+30.70 Units / 341% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+15.75 Units / 64% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+14.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+12.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.60 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 33 games (+29.20 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 23 of his last 43 games (+12.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 28 games (+11.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+10.15 Units / 53% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+8.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 58% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+9.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 44 games (+7.82 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games (+5.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+5.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.60 Units / 16% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 22-21 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -0.18% ROI).
- 24-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.09% ROI
- 20-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -4.1% ROI
- 20-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -4.44% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 26-18 against the Run Line (+9.45 Units / 17.28% ROI).
- 27-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.82 Units / 13.56% ROI
- 22-20 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 20-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.1 Units / -8.51% ROI
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Freeman (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
| Triston McKenzie (CLE) | 5.5 +140 | 5.5 -185 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (9/36) against Simeon Woods Richardson in two-strike counts this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 20% (3/15) against Simeon Woods Richardson’s changeup this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 50% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 27% (6/22) against Simeon Woods Richardson — 7th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (8/29) against Simeon Woods Richardson — tied for 10th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 10th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitless in 21 AB’s against Triston McKenzie with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .180 — 100th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has walked 8 of 71 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has walked 12 of 72 batters (17%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has walked 24 of 176 batters (14%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are 21-64 (.247) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Twins are 15-76 (.165) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Twins are 90-1 (.989) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are 158-4 (.975) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 36-128 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .132.
The Guardians are 25-135 (.156) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Guardians are 9-85 (.096) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Guardians are just 10-17 (.370) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .242 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .264 (174 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Twins hitters have 1,572 strikeouts in 5,948 PA’s (26%) against RHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting just .152 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Guardians are batting just .244 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Guardians hitters have just 136 strikeouts in 948 PA’s (14%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 110 of 1,611 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Twins pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.70 runs per game (31/44) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .189 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.7 MPH this season (1,066 balls in play) — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.8
Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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