- The Twins are -115 favorites vs the Guardians
- Twins vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Twins / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | BSNO
The Minnesota Twins (-115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-105) on Saturday, May 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Twins are 24-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 26-19 ATS.
Twins vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 4-1, 3.77 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen 0-1, 3.26 ERA
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +140 | O 7.5 -105 | -115 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -115 | -105 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 10 away games (+29.70 Units / 297% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+14.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+13.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+13.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+10.20 Units / 102% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 34 games (+28.20 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 44 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 29 games (+13.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+8.45 Units / 40% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games (+7.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games (+7.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+4.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.80 Units / 21% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.82 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games (+8.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+4.90 Units / 9% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 23-21 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 1.54% ROI).
- 24-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.05 Units / -1.81% ROI
- 20-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.05 Units / -6.43% ROI
- 21-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -2.22% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 26-19 against the Run Line (+8.45 Units / 15.17% ROI).
- 28-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.82 Units / 14.95% ROI
- 22-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -2.31% ROI
- 21-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.1 Units / -6.29% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (10/42) against Bailey Ober in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Bailey Ober has a strikeout rate of 56% (10 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (10/42) against Bailey Ober in two-strike counts this season — lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .092 (6-for-65) against Bailey Ober’s non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .393 (11-for-28) against Logan Allen’s elevated fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .203 — first Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .685 (50 Total Bases / 73 ABs) at home this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — first Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .756 (34 Total Bases / 45 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .366 — second Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed an OPS of .882 (199 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .674 — second Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are 15-77 (.163) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Twins are 21-65 (.244) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Twins are 90-1 (.989) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Twins are just 17-30 (.362) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 25-135 (.156) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Guardians are 36-128 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .132.
The Guardians are 9-85 (.096) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Guardians are just 10-17 (.370) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 1,581 strikeouts in 5,978 PA’s (26%) against RHP since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have 108 extra-base hits out of 246 total hits (44%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The Twins are batting just .241 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Twins hitters have drawn 21 walks in 380 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,602 strikeouts in 13,946 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,824 strikeouts in 10,024 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Guardians are batting just .247 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have struck out 26% of left-handed batters they faced this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .186 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.71 runs per game (32/45) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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