- The Guardians are -120 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Twins / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | BSNO | MLBN
The Minnesota Twins (+100) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on Sunday, May 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Twins are 24-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 27-19 ATS.
Twins vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Chris Paddack 4-2, 4.89 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 2-1, 4.37 ERA
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -110 | +100 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -110 | -120 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 11 away games (+28.70 Units / 261% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+14.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+13.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+13.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.00 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 14 games at home (+29.00 Units / 207% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 25 of his last 45 games (+15.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 30 games (+12.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+11.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 games (+8.00 Units / 133% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games (+6.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.69 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+6.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+5.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 60% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 46 games (+9.82 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 46 games (+9.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games (+5.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games (+5.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 23-22 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -0.17% ROI).
- 24-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -3.79% ROI
- 21-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.05 Units / -4.22% ROI
- 21-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -4.35% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 27-19 against the Run Line (+9.45 Units / 16.48% ROI).
- 29-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.82 Units / 16.37% ROI
- 23-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.29% ROI
- 21-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.15 Units / -8.25% ROI
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 6.5 +135 | 6.5 -175 |
| Chris Paddack (MIN) | 4.5 +135 | 4.5 -175 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Paddack has allowed a slugging percentage of .611 (33 Total Bases / 54 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .296 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .328 (60-for-183) against Chris Paddack this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — second Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .352 (32-for-91) against Chris Paddack this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .500 (12-for-24) against Chris Paddack on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .316 — fourth Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Bibee has allowed a slugging percentage of .827 (62 Total Bases / 75 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .526 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 25% (38/152) against Tanner Bibee with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .371 (13-for-35) against Tanner Bibee’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .205 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .110 (11-for-100) against Tanner Bibee with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among in MLB; League Avg: .170 — 97th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are 21-66 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Twins are just 17-30 (.362) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 90-1 (.989) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Twins are 158-4 (.975) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 36-128 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .133.
The Guardians are 13-75 (.148) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Guardians are 30-27 (.526) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Guardians are 25-135 (.156) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have drawn 22 walks in 405 PA’s (5%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .266 (184 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Twins are batting just .284 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Twins are batting just .220 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .247 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,829 strikeouts in 10,055 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have walked 1,025 of 13,754 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 114 of 1,684 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.78 runs per game (36/46) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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