- The Mets are -130 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Twins / Mets TV Channel: BSNO | SNY
The Minnesota Twins (+105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-125) on Tuesday, July 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Twins are 58-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 52-54 ATS.
Twins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: David Festa 1-1, 8.17 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 6-4, 3.77 ERA
Twins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 +100 | +105 |
| Mets | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -120 | -125 |
Twins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 23 games (+20.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+11.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+9.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 39 games (+9.00 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 23 games (+26.00 Units / 113% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+14.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 13 games (+13.40 Units / 66% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+12.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+12.75 Units / 28% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games (+11.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 85 games (+6.90 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 29 games (+6.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.30 Units / 10% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 60 of their last 97 games (+16.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 47 games (+15.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 65 games (+11.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+11.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 48 games (+10.15 Units / 17% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 50-55 against the Run Line (-7 Units / -5.28% ROI).
- 58-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.05 Units / -1.39% ROI
- 54-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 2.23% ROI
- 47-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.65 Units / -11.02% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 52-54 against the Run Line (-3.4 Units / -2.52% ROI).
- 56-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.25 Units / 1.77% ROI
- 56-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.3 Units / 5.45% ROI
- 45-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.9 Units / -14.02% ROI
Mets vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Manuel Margot (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Mets vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +110 |
| David Festa (MIN) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Festa has allowed a slugging percentage of .780 (32 Total Bases / 41 ABs) this month (2 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .418 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 10% (1/10) against David Festa in his last appearance — 7th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
David Festa has allowed an OPS of 1.129 (43 PA’s) this month (2 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .731 — second Percentile.
David Festa has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to June 27th — Griffin Canning has the longest active streak at 8.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sean Manaea has walked 21 of 180 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 35 of 351 right-handed batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 45 of 446 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of .762 (16 Total Bases / 21 ABs) with two-strikes in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .261 — first Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Twins are 15-32 (.319) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Twins are 24-86 (.218) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Twins are 117-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are just 3-8 (.273) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mets are 6-40 (.130) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Mets are just 40-11 (.784) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .895.
The Mets are just 44-6 (.880) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Mets are 12-7 (.632) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .788 (1,288 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .686.
The Twins are batting .276 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Twins have scored 1.79 runs per game (479/267) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.45.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .778 (3,236 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .770 (1,144 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Mets hitters are slugging .444 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Mets are batting .266 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .326 (11,392 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have walked 713 of 9,921 batters (7%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 57 of 934 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 229 of 2,365 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 89 of 953 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have walked 405 of 4,071 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Drew Smith (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grant Hartwig (New York Mets): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Tim Locastro (New York Mets): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Starling Marte (New York Mets): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Brooks Raley (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Reed Garrett (New York Mets): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, Day-To-Day
- Chris Paddack (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Groin, 10-Day IL
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Brent Headrick (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Alex Kirilloff (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Farmer (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Kody Funderburk (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
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