- The Twins are -175 favorites vs the Tigers
- Twins vs Tigers Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Twins / Tigers TV Channel: BSNO | BSDT
The Minnesota Twins (-175) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (+145) on Friday, July 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Detroit, MI.
This season, the Twins are 56-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 54-50 ATS.
Twins vs Tigers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 8-7, 4.90 ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Keider Montero 1-3, 6.04 ERA
Twins vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 -105 | O 7.5 -105 | -175 |
| Tigers | +1.5 -115 | U 7.5 -115 | +145 |
Twins vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 64.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Edouard Julien has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+12.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 21 games (+11.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Pablo Lopez has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 27 games (+10.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+10.40 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Vierling has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 21 games at home (+27.00 Units / 129% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+15.60 Units / 54% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 27 games (+12.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+12.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+11.80 Units / 19% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games (+10.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+7.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 81 games (+7.15 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.15 Units / 33% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 17 games (+16.20 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 87 games (+12.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.50 Units / 27% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 48-53 against the Run Line (-6.1 Units / -4.78% ROI).
- 56-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -1.27% ROI
- 51-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 0.59% ROI
- 46-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.4 Units / -9.42% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 54-50 against the Run Line (-0.95 Units / -0.67% ROI).
- 51-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.55 Units / -3.81% ROI
- 55-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.4 Units / 7.55% ROI
- 42-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.7 Units / -16.82% ROI
Tigers vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
Tigers vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Gio Urshela (DET) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Tigers vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Tigers vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez (MIN) | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 -105 |
| Keider Montero (DET) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has walked 5 of 180 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 36% (215/597) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 35% (115/330) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 50% (17 SO in 34 PAs) in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 15% (3/20) against Keider Montero over the past seven days (1 games) — lowest among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .467 (7-for-15) against Keider Montero in his last two starts — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .238 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (9/37) against Keider Montero in his last two starts — 5th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 21% (5/24) against Keider Montero in his last two starts — 4th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — fifth Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Twins are 54-17 (.761) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .622.
The Twins are 24-84 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Twins are 183-4 (.979) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Twins are 32-23 (.582) after a win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .489.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Tigers are just 25-58 (.301) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Tigers are just 9-14 (.391) after a home win this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Tigers are just 29-162 (.152) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Tigers are just 27-37 (.422) after a home win since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting .278 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Twins have scored 1.80 runs per game (474/263) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.45.
The Twins have scored 171 runs in late innings this season — most in MLB.
Twins hitters have drawn 58 walks in 943 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Tigers are batting just .308 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .292 (12,050 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Tigers are batting just .219 on pitches 95 mph or greater since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Tigers are batting just .279 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have walked 255 of 3,740 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 698 of 9,768 batters (7%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 277 of 3,846 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 322 of 3,794 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Tigers vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Reese Olson (Detroit Tigers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Alex Lange (Detroit Tigers): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Matt Manning (Detroit Tigers): Lat, 7-Day IL
- Parker Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Eddys Leonard (Detroit Tigers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Kerry Carpenter (Detroit Tigers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, Day-To-Day
- Chris Paddack (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Groin, 10-Day IL
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Brent Headrick (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Alex Kirilloff (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Farmer (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Kody Funderburk (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
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