- The Twins are -185 favorites vs the Tigers
- Twins vs Tigers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Twins / Tigers TV Channel: BSNO | BSDT
The Minnesota Twins (-155) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (+130) on Sunday, July 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Detroit, MI.
This season, the Twins are 57-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 55-51 ATS.
Twins vs Tigers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 9-5, 4.04 ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Alex Faedo 5-1, 3.49 ERA
Twins vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +110 | O 8 -115 | -155 |
| Tigers | +1.5 -135 | U 8 -105 | +130 |
Twins vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 61.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 22 games (+21.00 Units / 95% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+10.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+9.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 32 games (+8.90 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Colt Keith has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 48 games (+32.40 Units / 68% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.10 Units / 58% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 37 games (+12.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+7.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 83 games (+7.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 16 away games (+0.75 Units / 4% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 19 games (+16.10 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 89 games (+14.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+6.15 Units / 23% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 49-54 against the Run Line (-6.1 Units / -4.71% ROI).
- 57-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -1.35% ROI
- 53-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.65 Units / 2.37% ROI
- 46-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.5 Units / -11.11% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 55-51 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -0.72% ROI).
- 52-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.55 Units / -3.75% ROI
- 57-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.4 Units / 9.16% ROI
- 42-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.8 Units / -18.37% ROI
Tigers vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
Tigers vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Tigers vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Tigers vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Alex Faedo (DET) | 1.5 -120 | 1.5 -110 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of .568 (46 Total Bases / 81 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .351 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (34/110) against Bailey Ober in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — third Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 74% of the time (1,263/1,701) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has a strikeout rate of 43% (51 SO in 119 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 90th Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Alex Faedo allowed a batting average of .297 vs right-handed batters (tied for ninth worst)– 10th Percentile and just .169 vs left-handed batters this season (14th best among qualified RPs)– 87th Percentile.
Alex Faedo has allowed a slugging percentage of .538 (49 Total Bases / 91 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .367 — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 35% (24/68) against Alex Faedo this season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Alex Faedo has a first-pitch strike rate of 71% (144/204) this season — 4th highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 61% — 96th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Twins are 24-85 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Twins are 17-97 (.149) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Twins are 16-12 (.571) after a road win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .458.
The Twins are 22-7 (.759) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .639.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Tigers are just 25-58 (.301) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Tigers are just 27-38 (.415) after a home win since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Tigers are 37-5 (.881) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Tigers are 23-3 (.885) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .760.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .785 (1,258 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .684.
The Twins are batting .276 against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins hitters have drawn 61 walks in 983 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Twins have scored 1.79 runs per game (475/265) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.45.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .292 (12,116 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Tigers are batting just .309 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .296 (15,886 PA’s) since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .300 (7,778 PA’s) against RHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have walked 260 of 3,813 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Tigers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 322 of 3,812 batters (8%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 759 of 9,999 batters (8%) since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 283 of 3,926 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Reese Olson (Detroit Tigers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Alex Lange (Detroit Tigers): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Matt Manning (Detroit Tigers): Lat, 7-Day IL
- Parker Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Eddys Leonard (Detroit Tigers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Kerry Carpenter (Detroit Tigers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, Day-To-Day
- Chris Paddack (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Groin, 10-Day IL
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Brent Headrick (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Alex Kirilloff (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Farmer (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Kody Funderburk (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
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