- The Twins are -120 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Yankees / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | YES | MLBN
The New York Yankees (+100) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-120) on Thursday, May 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Yankees are 29-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 22-20 ATS.
Yankees vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt 4-1, 2.96 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Joe Ryan 2-2, 3.24 ERA
Yankees vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -210 | O 8 -105 | +100 |
| Twins | -1.5 +160 | U 8 -115 | -120 |
Yankees vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 20 games (+17.40 Units / 87% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+14.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 36 games (+9.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 24 away games (+9.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+8.20 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 18 games (+27.20 Units / 151% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+15.95 Units / 48% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.65 Units / 57% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+11.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.60 Units / 40% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+8.65 Units / 80% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 44 games (+8.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.99 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.35 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.80 Units / 34% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+10.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.65 Units / 30% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 23-21 against the Run Line (+4.95 Units / 9.48% ROI).
- 29-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +8 Units / 12.92% ROI
- 18-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -17.13% ROI
- 24-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.2 Units / 8.63% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 22-20 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 1.62% ROI).
- 24-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 2.06% ROI
- 20-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.8 Units / -1.77% ROI
- 19-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -6.76% ROI
Twins vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -250 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Twins vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alex Verdugo (NYY) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Twins vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Verdugo (NYY) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan (MIN) | 5.5 -165 | 5.5 +125 |
| Clarke Schmidt (NYY) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Clarke Schmidt has walked 9 of 72 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .442 (19-for-43) against Clarke Schmidt when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .216 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .442 (19-for-43) against Clarke Schmidt when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — first Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt has allowed an OPS of 1.210 (47 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .629 — first Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .279 (86-for-308) against Joe Ryan when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — fifth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (20/68) against Joe Ryan this season — 2nd lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.
Joe Ryan’s K:BB ratio is 8.8 (53/6) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.1 — 96th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has allowed an OBP of just .208 (72 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among among AL Starters; League Avg: .282 — 97th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Yankees are 22-18 (.550) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Yankees are 66-39 (.629) after a home win since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Yankees are 143-25 (.851) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Yankees are 122-32 (.792) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Twins are 21-62 (.253) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Twins are just 17-30 (.362) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 15-74 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Twins are 43-15 (.741) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .616.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees are batting just .218 with two outs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
The Yankees are batting .398 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Yankees are batting just .234 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .760 (3,184 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .152 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have 105 extra-base hits out of 240 total hits (44%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Twins hitters have drawn 20 walks in 374 PA’s (5%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .271 (166 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Yankees have won 59% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Yankees pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 25% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .212 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have walked 108 of 1,573 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 551 of 7,601 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Anthony Volpe (New York Yankees): Illness, Day-To-Day
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- McKinley Moore (New York Yankees): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- DJ LeMahieu (New York Yankees): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Oscar Gonzalez (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Jorbit Vivas (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Tommy Kahnle (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Oswald Peraza (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
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