There is one game to consider for NBA betting on Monday, June 12, and I’ve identified a few favorable player prop bets on the BetMGM online sportsbook that you could ponder ahead of tonight’s action.
NBA Player Prop Bets: Monday, June 12
Nikola Jokic Under 12.5 Rebounds (-105)
Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets, 8:30 p.m. ET
Bettors now have four games of evidence that the 2023 NBA Finals are low-scoring affairs. Three of four have gone under, and the total number of possessions are down.
All that means less rebounding, which is reflected in the overall rebounding numbers. Jokic is averaging 13 rebounds per game this postseason, but he’s collected 12 or fewer in three of the four Finals games so far. (He had a whopping 21 in Game 3, greatly skewing his series average.)
Jokic overs are the most common prop bet, game in and game out, and I don’t necessarily hate them on spec. I have slammed Jokic PRA overs again and again throughout these playoffs, as they have generally been one of the best places to put your money.
In this case, though, I’m going to go ahead and bet an under here, as the metrics and series results have generally pointed toward lower-than-expected rebounding totals for everyone… including Jokic.
Jamal Murray Under 2.5 Three-Pointers (+135)
Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets, 8:30 p.m. ET
This is a play because of the price. Murray is increasingly thought of as a lights-out shooter, but his game has much more depth than that. He challenges Miami in the mid-range, dives to the cup, and shoots from outside.
Murray has hit 2 three-pointers in two Finals games and 3 three-pointers in the other two Finals games. As far as the series results are concerned, this prop is a coin flip.
However, he market is so high on Murray’s three-point shooting that the over is now priced out to an absurd degree.
This is a classic case where I don’t necessarily love an under, but it has to be the late sharp play because of how the overall market has altered the pricing. Give me the tasty +135.
Christian Braun Records a Steal (+100)
Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets, 8:30 p.m. ET
Braun has come on as a pleasant, matchup-driven surprise during the Finals, playing at least 15 minutes in each of the last three games. Prior to the Miami series, he had three total 15-minute games in the entire 2023 playoffs.
Braun’s role as a limited scorer has been in flux during this three-game stretch. In Game 3, he was 7-for-8 with 15 points; in Game 4; he was 0-for-1 with just one made free throw.
But Braun has consistently played defense, which is why he continues to get minutes. He’s recorded five total steals in the last three games, including at least one in each contest.
An even return means this is a solid prop bet for Game 5.
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What is an NBA Prop Bet?
NBA player prop bets allow bettors to bet on very specific aspects of a game involving a player outcome. You might choose to bet on how many points your favorite player will score or whether or not a game will go to overtime.
In contrast, traditional straight bets often allow bettors to take a position on games in ways that are commonly mentioned in handicapping media, like the total, an NBA point spread, or NBA moneyline. Generally speaking, they are bets on the overall outcome of a game.
Exploring the NBA props page at your favorite online sportsbook is the best way to discover all the different types of props.
NBA Player Prop Bets
While there are a seemingly infinite number of potential NBA prop bets, the most popular are often player props that revolve around basic stat accumulation for star players. Things like:
“Will Steph Curry score more than 29.5 points?”
“Will Russell Westbrook record a triple-double?”
“Will Chris Paul record at least 8 assists?”
Many player props are centered around betting whether or not a specific player will record over or under a specific number on a given basketball statistic.
For a more complex bet, you can also bet whether or not a specific player will record over or under a specific number for a combined set of basketball statistics. For example, you might be that Kevin Durant records fewer than 49.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
These player props are great options in online sports betting for those who want to isolate their wager to one specific player, rather than gamble on the collective performance of a team. If you don’t like any of today’s NBA betting lines, you can always consider the player prop market.
What is the Most Popular NBA Player Prop Bet?
The top 10 most popular NBA player prop bet types are:
- Total Points scored
- Which player will score the 1st field goal
- Total 3-point shots made
- Total Points + Rebounds + Assists by one player
- Total Rebounds
- Total Assists
- Total Assists + Rebound by one player
- Which player will score the 1st field goal + which team wins
- Total Points + Assists by one player
- Total Blocks
You can bet any individual category as a single prop bet. You also may be able to combine multiple props to create favorable NBA parlays.
NBA Team Prop Bets
Unlike individual player props, NBA team prop bets are wagers on a specific element of a team’s performance. Rather than betting on a team’s game outcome with a total or point spread, some bettors might choose to bet on a more granular detail of a game.
For instance, in a game between the Lakers and Celtics, one bettor may choose to bet on which team scores 20 points first, or which team calls the first timeout of the game.
Much like the extensive marketplace for player props, there are a seemingly infinite number of team props available for savvy bettors. The best way to discover them all is by exploring the NBA Props page at your favorite online sportsbook.
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