NBA Prop Bets: Today’s Best Bets for Player Props

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(Photo by Keith Allison/Wikimedia Commons)
Chase Kiddy @chaseakiddy May 17, 2022, 1:10 PM
  • We pick our favorite NBA favorite player prop bets to consider for today's games
  • Lines provided by BetMGM sportsbook

There is 1 game for today’ Tuesday NBA playoff slate, and we’ve identified a few favorable player prop bets on the BetMGM Sportsbook that you could consider ahead of tonight’s action.

NBA Player Prop Bets: Tuesday, May 17

Grant Williams Records a Block (-120)

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat, 8:30pm ET

Grant Williams’ prop market for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals is a particularly weird one.

Typically, I would be looking to sell high and fade any position in the game immediately after a role player hits seven three-pointers. But here’s the rub: Williams’ props are already really low. The regression is baked into the current prices so much that it actually seems like the over might even have value again. I mean, this is a role player averaging about 11 points per game during these playoffs. How can I bet an Under 8.5? If he hits a trey and three layups, I’m cooked.

So instead of trying to sort out a complex market, I found a totally different, undervalued one: blocks. Williams’ offense ebbs and flows, but he’s a pretty consistent defensive presence in the Boston lineups that he’s a part of. He’s posted at least one block in six of 11 games this postseason, including both Game 1s. Avoid the tricky Williams regression question with this play.

Bam Adebayo Over 2.5 Turnovers (+120)

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat, 8:30 pm ET

This is probably the best play on the entire prop board for Tuesday night, and absolutely no one seems to have found it. Bam has turned the ball over pretty consistently, as he’s been tagged for three or more turnovers in seven of 11 playoff games.

It’s very relevant here to point out that Miami’s first two playoff opponents were Atlanta and Philadelphia, both of whom rank among the worst teams in the league in Opponent Turnovers. Put another way: they don’t play a lot of ball-pressure defense.

Contrast that against the Celtics, who are held up as one of the premier defensive teams in the league.

The fact that I just need Bam to turn the ball over at his regular pace tonight – and I’m even given a 6/5 payout for the position – makes this a must-bet prop.

Jaylen Brown Under 23.5 points (-130)

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat, 8:30 pm ET

As a general rule, traveling to Miami to play Game 1 just 48 hours after Game 7 against Milwaukee is a really tough spot for Boston. (I talked about this in a larger NBA odds piece yesterday.) I expect scoring to be down across the board for Boston.

One particular spot I want to target is Brown’s scoring prop. He’s been a very streaky scorer during these playoffs, so if he comes in hot, we’re probably going to know very early on that this is a dead ticket. But the fact remains that he has scored 23 or less in eight of 11 playoff games, including both Game 1s and each of the last two games against Miluwakee. The under feels like the only possible side to play here.


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What is an NBA Prop Bet?

NBA player prop bets allow bettors to bet on very specific aspects of a game involving a player outcome. You might choose to bet on how many points your favorite player will score or whether or not a game will go to overtime.

In contrast, traditional straight bets often allow bettors to take a position on games in ways that are commonly mentioned in handicapping media, like the total, an NBA point spread, or NBA moneyline. Generally speaking, they are bets on the overall outcome of a game.

Exploring the NBA props page at your favorite online sportsbook is the best way to discover all the different types of props.

NBA Player Prop Bets

While there are a seemingly infinite number of potential NBA prop bets, the most popular are often player props that revolve around basic stat accumulation for star players. Things like:

“Will Steph Curry score more than 29.5 points?”

“Will Russell Westbrook record a triple-double?”

“Will Chris Paul record at least 8 assists?”

Many player props are centered around betting whether or not a specific player will record over or under a specific number on a given basketball statistic.

For a more complex bet, you can also bet whether or not a specific player will record over or under a specific number for a combined set of basketball statistics. For example, you might be that Kevin Durant records fewer than 49.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.

These player props are great options in online sports betting for those who want to isolate their wager to one specific player, rather than gamble on the collective performance of a team. If you don’t like any of today’s NBA betting lines, you can always consider the player prop market.

What is the Most Popular NBA Player Prop Bet?

The top 10 most popular NBA player prop bet types are: 

  1. Total Points scored
  2. Which player will score the 1st field goal 
  3. Total 3-point shots made
  4. Total Points + Rebounds + Assists by one player
  5. Total Rebounds
  6. Total Assists
  7. Total Assists + Rebound by one player
  8. Which player will score the 1st field goal + which team wins
  9. Total Points + Assists by one player
  10. Total Blocks

You can bet any individual category as a single prop bet. You also may be able to combine multiple props to create favorable NBA parlays.

NBA Team Prop Bets

Unlike individual player props, NBA team prop bets are wagers on a specific element of a team’s performance. Rather than betting on a team’s game outcome with a total or point spread, some bettors might choose to bet on a more granular detail of a game.

For instance, in a game between the Lakers and Celtics, one bettor may choose to bet on which team scores 20 points first, or which team calls the first timeout of the game.

Much like the extensive marketplace for player props, there are a seemingly infinite number of team props available for savvy bettors. The best way to discover them all is by exploring the NBA Props page at your favorite online sportsbook.

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About the Author

Chase Kiddy

Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.