- The – are favorites vs. the –
- Total (Over/Under): Total points
- Watch the game on FDWI | SUN
The Milwaukee Bucks visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Miami, FL, FL.
The – are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().
The Bucks vs Heat Over/Under is total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Bucks are 38-37 against the spread, while the Heat are 38-38 against the spread.
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Bucks vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | O | ||
| Miami Heat | U |
Heat vs Bucks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Bucks will win Saturday‘s game with 67.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Bucks and Heat.
Heat vs Bucks Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.9% confidence.
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Bucks Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 42 away games (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 3Q Spread in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 24 games (+6.20 Units / 23% ROI)
Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 games (+23.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 30 of their last 48 games (+17.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 30 of their last 43 games (+16.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 43 of their last 69 games (+13.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 29 of their last 44 games (+12.80 Units / 25% ROI)
Milwaukee Bucks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 38-37 (-2.7 Units / -3.19% ROI).
- 43-34 against the Moneyline (-14.2 Units / -7.83% ROI)
- 39-38 against the Over for game total points (-2.8 Units / -3.31% ROI)
- 38-39 against the Under for game total points (-4.9 Units / -5.79% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 38-38 (-3.8 Units / -4.48% ROI).
- 35-42 against the Moneyline (-12.75 Units / -9.77% ROI)
- 39-38 against the Over for game total points (-2.8 Units / -3.31% ROI)
- 38-39 against the Under for game total points (-4.9 Units / -5.79% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 69 games (-22.98 Units / -29% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 56 games (-21.17 Units / -31% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 73 games (-19.80 Units / -24% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 39 games (-18.35 Units / -40% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 37 of their last 84 games (-17.20 Units / -18% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Bucks:
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 89 games (-27.40 Units / -13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 4Q Spread in 37 of their last 89 games (-23.30 Units / -23% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 35 of their last 82 games (-22.50 Units / -18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 42 away games (-19.05 Units / -40% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 33 of their last 78 games (-18.63 Units / -18% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Milwaukee Bucks
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Player Injuries for Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
- Milwaukee Bucks Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Milwaukee Bucks Defensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Bucks are 83-32 (.722) when scoring 110 or more points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .660
The Bucks were 22-11 (.667) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent last season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566
The Bucks are 18-7 (.720) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .561
The Bucks are 52-18 (.743) when making 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .648
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks
The Heat are 6-20 (.231) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers this season — 8th-worst in the NBA. The Bucks have made 14.1 three-pointers per game this season — T-8th-highest in the NBA.
The Heat were 3-9 (.250) when forcing fewer than 5 steals last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .385
The Heat are 35-4 (.897) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .821
The Heat were 2-6 (.250) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .414
Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Bucks averaged 1.39 points per shot (4,829 points/3,483 shots) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.31
The Bucks have averaged 10.1 second chance points per game (375 points/37 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1
The Bucks have averaged 6.6 points in the paint per game (350 points/53 games) in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.5
The Bucks have averaged 1.6 second chance points per game (84 points/53 games) in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.7
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 53.1 points per game (8,450 points/159 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5
The Heat had an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%
The Heat averaged 11.1 second chance points per game (454 points/41 games) on the road last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6
The Heat have averaged 5.8 fast break points per game (929 points/159 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1
Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Bucks have averaged 37.3 defensive rebounds per game (2,833 rebounds/76 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3
The Bucks averaged 6.8 steals per game (558 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
The Bucks have averaged 7.0 steals per game (1,110 steals/158 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.8
The Bucks have averaged 37.1 defensive rebounds per game (5,868 rebounds/158 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (279 blocks/79 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (293 blocks/77 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (573 blocks/159 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
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