Bucks vs Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 12, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Thunder are -14.5 favorites vs. the Bucks
  • Total (Over/Under): 223.5 points
  • Watch the game on KSBI | WMLW | NBAt

The Milwaukee Bucks visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Oklahoma City, OK.

The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-110).

The Bucks vs Thunder Over/Under is 223.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Bucks are 35-44 against the spread, while the Thunder are 44-35 against the spread.


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Bucks vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Milwaukee Bucks+14.5 -110O 223.5 -110+675
Oklahoma City Thunder -14.5 -110U 223.5 -110-1100

Thunder vs Bucks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Friday‘s game with 95.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Bucks and Thunder.

Thunder vs Bucks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Thunder will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 62.7% confidence.


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  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+11.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+9.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games (+9.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.85 Units / 70% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 4Q Spread in 20 of their last 33 away games (+7.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 35 games at home (+22.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 3Q Spread in 24 of their last 30 games at home (+17.15 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 4Q Spread in 43 of their last 71 games (+12.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+10.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+9.80 Units / 23% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 35-44 (-13.4 Units / -15.24% ROI).

  • 49-31 against the Moneyline (-40.2 Units / -13.99% ROI)
  • 40-40 against the Over for game total points (-4 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 40-40 against the Under for game total points (-4 Units / -4.55% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 44-35 (+5.5 Units / 6.25% ROI).

  • 55-25 against the Moneyline (+14.35 Units / 5.53% ROI)
  • 42-34 against the Over for game total points (+4.6 Units / 5.22% ROI)
  • 34-42 against the Under for game total points (-12.1 Units / -13.77% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 77 games (-18.90 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 81 games (-17.95 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 22 of their last 56 games (-14.90 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 69 games (-13.70 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 82 games (-13.20 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 85 games (-55.40 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 37 of their last 66 games (-25.40 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 45 of their last 85 games (-21.25 Units / -13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 40 away games (-20.20 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 54 games (-19.95 Units / -31% ROI)

Jump to:

Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Bucks were 27-3 (.900) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Bucks were 27-11 (.711) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

The Bucks are 30-8 (.789) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 4th-best in the NBA. The Thunder have averaged 49.1 rebounds/game this season — 3rd-lowest in the NBA.

The Bucks were 25-7 (.781) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks

The Thunder were undefeated (9-0) when their eFG is 60% or better last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .808

The Thunder are 7-2 (.778) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws this season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

The Thunder were 20-9 (.690) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Thunder are 47-22 (.681) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .511

Injury Report: Thunder vs. BucksFriday‘s Game, Apr. 12

  • Oklahoma City Thunder – No Injuries Reported
  • Khris Middleton (Milwaukee Bucks): Ankle, Out

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have 24.0 free throw attempts per game this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 21.8

The Bucks have averaged 15.1 offensive rebounds per game (1,207 rebounds/80 games) this season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 16.2

The Bucks have averaged 1.45 points per shot (1,358 points/938 shots) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.32

The Bucks averaged 1.4 fast break points per game (88 points/61 games) in close and late situations last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder are shooting 40% from three (543/1,345) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder have an eFG% of 58% in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

The Thunder have a TS% of 55% in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Thunder are shooting 39% from three (120/305) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks averaged 39.7 defensive rebounds per game (3,254 rebounds/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Bucks have averaged 38.4 defensive rebounds per game (6,226 rebounds/162 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Bucks allowed an average of 1.18 points per shot (4,607 points/3,889 shots) in the first half last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.28

The Bucks allowed an average of 1.21 points per shot (4,679 points/3,854 shots) on the road last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.31

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 6.6 blocks per game (527 blocks/80 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Thunder have averaged 8.4 steals per game (675 steals/80 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Thunder averaged 34.3 defensive rebounds per game (2,811 rebounds/82 games) last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Thunder have allowed 9.0 offensive rebounds per game (718 rebounds/80 games) in the first half this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 7.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.