Hawks vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 19

  • The Heat are -6.5 favorites vs. the Hawks
  • Total (Over/Under): 226.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | WPCH

The Atlanta Hawks visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Miami, FL.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Hawks vs Heat Over/Under is 221.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Hawks are 10-30 against the spread, while the Heat are 20-21 against the spread.


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Hawks vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Atlanta Hawks+6.5 -110O 221.5 -105+225
Miami Heat -6.5 -110U 221.5 -115-275

Heat vs Hawks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Friday‘s game with 71.6% confidence, factoring in recent team & player performances for the Hawks and Heat, plus player injuries and defensive & offensive matchups.

Heat vs Hawks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Hawks will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.5% confidence.


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  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 84 games (+11.60 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 44 of their last 73 games (+11.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 70 games (+9.40 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 69 games (+8.05 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 71 games (+29.35 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 39 of their last 65 games (+21.00 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 48 of their last 74 games (+20.90 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 43 of their last 76 games (+19.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 28 games (+13.25 Units / 43% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Hawks have gone 10-30 (-22.9 Units / -52.16% ROI).

  • 17-23 against the Moneyline (-13.3 Units / -19.73% ROI)
  • 22-17 against the Over for game total points (+3.3 Units / 7.5% ROI)
  • 17-22 against the Under for game total points (-7.2 Units / -16.36% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 20-21 (-3.05 Units / -6.76% ROI).

  • 24-17 against the Moneyline (+7.4 Units / 11.74% ROI)
  • 18-23 against the Over for game total points (-7.3 Units / -16.19% ROI)
  • 23-18 against the Under for game total points (+3.2 Units / 7.1% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 90 games (-20.90 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 87 games (-20.70 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 41 of their last 98 games (-19.40 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 28 of their last 73 games (-17.55 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 44 games (-16.75 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only covered the Spread in 25 of their last 76 games (-31.00 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 83 games (-24.35 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 34 games (-22.45 Units / -60% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only covered the 4Q Spread in 33 of their last 83 games (-21.95 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 73 games (-20.75 Units / -25% ROI)

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Atlanta Hawks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Hawks were undefeated (19-0) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .777

The Hawks were 8-1 (.889) when making 15 or more three-pointers last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .700

The Hawks were 5-21 (.192) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .297

The Hawks are 4-16 (.200) when losing the rebounding margin this season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .367

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Hawks

The Heat are 18-6 (.750) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 8th-best in the NBA. The Hawks have allowed 123.0 points per game this season — 3rd-worst in the NBA.

The Heat were 34-10 (.773) when scoring 110 or more points last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

The Heat are 14-5 (.737) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .633

The Heat are 5-6 (.455) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .552

Injury Report: Heat vs. HawksFriday‘s Game, Jan. 19

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • R.J. Hampton (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Bam Adebayo (Miami Heat): Hip, Game Time Decision
  • Haywood Highsmith (Miami Heat): Back, Game Time Decision
  • Jalen Johnson (Atlanta Hawks): Wrist, Out
  • Mouhamed Gueye (Atlanta Hawks): Back, Out
  • Kobe Bufkin (Atlanta Hawks): Thumb, Out

Atlanta Hawks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks averaged 14.3 second chance points per game (1,174 points/82 games) last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

The Hawks averaged 118.4 points per game (9,711 points/82 games) last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Hawks made 10.8 three-pointers per game last season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Hawks have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (1,027 assists/ 566 TOs) this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat have averaged 54.0 points per game (2,215 points/41 games) in the second half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 57.4

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

Atlanta Hawks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks have averaged 33.6 defensive rebounds per game (1,343 rebounds/40 games) this season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Hawks have averaged 8.2 steals per game (328 steals/40 games) this season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Hawks have 328 steals this season — 6th most among NBA teams

The Hawks have averaged 4.5 blocks per game (281 blocks/62 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (380 blocks/123 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.3 blocks per game (137 blocks/41 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (195 blocks/63 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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