Hawks vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 06, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets are -11.5 favorites vs. the Hawks
  • Total (Over/Under): 221.5 points
  • Watch the game on ALT | BSSE

The Atlanta Hawks visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EDT in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-105).

The Hawks vs Nuggets Over/Under is 221.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Hawks are 28-49 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 34-41 against the spread.


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Hawks vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Atlanta Hawks+11.5 -115O 221.5 -110+475
Denver Nuggets -11.5 -105U 221.5 -110-650

Nuggets vs Hawks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Saturday‘s game with 91.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Hawks and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Hawks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Hawks will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.4% confidence.


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  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 43 games (+17.00 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+14.80 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 46 of their last 76 games (+12.95 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Team Total Over in 52 of their last 86 games (+12.40 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.40 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 98 games (+25.85 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 56 of their last 90 games (+17.30 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 88 games (+16.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 43 of their last 67 games (+15.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 58 of their last 90 games (+15.00 Units / 9% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Hawks have gone 28-49 (-25.9 Units / -30.58% ROI).

  • 36-41 against the Moneyline (-4.75 Units / -3.66% ROI)
  • 41-34 against the Over for game total points (+3.65 Units / 4.37% ROI)
  • 34-41 against the Under for game total points (-11.1 Units / -13.27% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 34-41 (-11.1 Units / -13.1% ROI).

  • 53-24 against the Moneyline (+13.95 Units / 5.05% ROI)
  • 30-45 against the Over for game total points (-19.5 Units / -23.01% ROI)
  • 45-30 against the Under for game total points (+12.05 Units / 14.24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 99 games (-29.10 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 100 games (-26.80 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 88 games (-25.30 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 82 games (-15.65 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the Spread in 29 of their last 69 games (-12.80 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only covered the Spread in 31 of their last 86 games (-29.50 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 24 of their last 71 games (-27.85 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 86 games (-25.25 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 86 games (-24.55 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 45 games (-23.40 Units / -46% ROI)

Jump to:

Atlanta Hawks: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Hawks were undefeated (19-0) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .777

The Hawks are 19-24 (.442) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Hawks are 2-17 (.105) when their eFG is 50% or worse this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .183

The Hawks are 10-26 (.278) when losing the rebounding margin this season — 10th-worst in the NBA. The Nuggets have averaged 52.4 rebounds/game this season — T-7th-highest in the NBA.

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Hawks

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 46-7 (.868) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 2nd-best in the NBA. The Hawks have allowed 120.0 points per game this season — 4th-worst in the NBA.

The Nuggets were 24-7 (.774) when they win the turnover margin last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

The Nuggets are winless (0-9) when shooting 40% or worse from the field since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .122

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. HawksSaturday‘s Game, Apr. 6

  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
  • Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out
  • Onyeka Okongwu (Atlanta Hawks): Toe, Out
  • Mouhamed Gueye (Atlanta Hawks): Back, Game Time Decision

Atlanta Hawks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks have averaged 16.1 second chance points per game (1,236 points/77 games) this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8

The Hawks averaged 54.3 points in the paint per game (4,450 points/82 games) last season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.5

The Hawks had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.9 (2,049 assists/ 1,060 TOs) last season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Hawks have made 13.8 three-pointers per game this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (1,201 assists/ 482 TOs) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets averaged 28.9 assists per game (2,369 assists/82 games) last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.3

Atlanta Hawks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks have averaged 34.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,647 rebounds/77 games) this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Hawks have averaged 4.6 blocks per game (357 blocks/77 games) this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Hawks have allowed opponents to shoot 40% from three (531/1,314) in the second half this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Hawks have allowed 8.4 fast break points per game (648 points/77 games) in the second half this season — tied for 2nd highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 6.8

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,766 rebounds/77 games) this season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Nuggets have averaged 7.1 steals per game (560 steals/79 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have averaged 7.5 steals per game (597 steals/80 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have averaged 7.0 steals per game (539 steals/77 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4


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