Heat vs 76ers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 18

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 18, 2024, 5:30 PM
  • The 76ers are +76 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 209.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN | NSPA | SUN

The Miami Heat visit Wells Fargo Center to take on the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.

The 76ers are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at +76 (-110).

The Heat vs 76ers Over/Under is 208.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 32-34 against the spread, while the 76ers are 35-31 against the spread.


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Heat vs. 76ers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+1.5 -110O 208.5 -110+100
Philadelphia 76ers +76 -110U 208.5 -110-120

76ers vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the 76ers will win Monday‘s game with 60.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and 76ers.

76ers vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the 76ers will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 55.6% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 48 away games (+27.40 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 76 games (+23.50 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 37 games (+19.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 59 of their last 99 games (+17.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 36 games (+16.90 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 85 games (+15.90 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+10.75 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have covered the 3Q Spread in 48 of their last 81 games (+10.65 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+9.75 Units / 15% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 32-34 (-5.4 Units / -7.33% ROI).

  • 37-30 against the Moneyline (-1.8 Units / -1.5% ROI)
  • 24-43 against the Over for game total points (-23.3 Units / -31.61% ROI)
  • 43-24 against the Under for game total points (+16.6 Units / 22.52% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the 76ers have gone 35-31 (+0.85 Units / 1.15% ROI).

  • 37-30 against the Moneyline (+1.45 Units / 0.88% ROI)
  • 35-32 against the Over for game total points (-0.2 Units / -0.27% ROI)
  • 32-35 against the Under for game total points (-6.5 Units / -8.82% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have only covered the 1Q Spread in 38 of their last 87 games (-18.35 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 56 games (-18.25 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 17 of their last 49 games (-17.70 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have only hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 38 games (-17.20 Units / -39% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 61 games (-15.50 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 76 games (-31.10 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 99 games (-30.90 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 83 games (-27.85 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 78 games (-23.85 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 36 games (-22.50 Units / -53% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Philadelphia 76ers

The Heat are winless (0-3) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394

The Heat were 19-9 (.679) when scoring 15 or more second chance points last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .531

The Heat are 1-6 (.143) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .404

The Heat were 12-8 (.600) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

Philadelphia 76ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The 76ers are 20-4 (.833) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 4th-best in the NBA. The Heat have averaged 49.7 rebounds/game this season — 5th-lowest in the NBA.

The 76ers were 17-5 (.773) when scoring 15 or more second chance points last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .531

The 76ers are 28-10 (.737) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .551

The 76ers were 45-10 (.818) when scoring 110 or more points last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

Injury Report: 76ers vs. HeatMonday‘s Game, Mar. 18

  • Robert Covington (Philadelphia 76ers): Knee, Out
  • Kyle Lowry (Philadelphia 76ers): Rest, Out
  • Joel Embiid (Philadelphia 76ers): Knee, Out
  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (7,092 points/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.8

The Heat are shooting 45% (2,537/5,644) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

Philadelphia 76ers Offensive Stats & Trends

The 76ers have 26.7 free throw attempts per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 22.7

The 76ers have averaged 18.8 fast break points per game (507 points/27 games) at home this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.8

The 76ers averaged 1.39 points per shot (4,766 points/3,435 shots) on the road last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

The 76ers are shooting 84% from the free throw line (1,475/1,758) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 79%

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (211 blocks/69 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (201 blocks/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (169 blocks/53 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

Philadelphia 76ers Defensive Stats & Trends

The 76ers have averaged 34.0 defensive rebounds per game (1,804 rebounds/53 games) this season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The 76ers have averaged 8.7 steals per game (462 steals/53 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The 76ers averaged 34.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,822 rebounds/82 games) last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The 76ers averaged 7.7 steals per game (635 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.