Heat vs Bucks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 13, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Bucks are -8.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 222.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | BSWI

The Miami Heat visit Fiserv Forum to take on the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Milwaukee, WI.

The Bucks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-105).

The Heat vs Bucks Over/Under is 223.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 25-28 against the spread, while the Bucks are 21-32 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Bucks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+8.5 -115O 223.5 -115+280
Milwaukee Bucks -8.5 -105U 223.5 -105-350

Bucks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Bucks will win Tuesday‘s game with 78.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Bucks.

Bucks vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Bucks will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 51.4% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 41 away games (+21.15 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 52 of their last 85 games (+20.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 45 of their last 77 games (+19.75 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 52 of their last 86 games (+16.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 62 games (+15.80 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 1H Spread in 30 of their last 44 games at home (+15.40 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 80 games (+10.70 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 35 of their last 45 games at home (+10.40 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 27 games at home (+10.20 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+9.50 Units / 19% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 25-28 (-5.7 Units / -9.79% ROI).

  • 28-25 against the Moneyline (-3.45 Units / -3.94% ROI)
  • 21-32 against the Over for game total points (-14.2 Units / -24.36% ROI)
  • 32-21 against the Under for game total points (+8.9 Units / 15.27% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 21-32 (-14.2 Units / -23.85% ROI).

  • 35-19 against the Moneyline (-3.7 Units / -1.9% ROI)
  • 29-25 against the Over for game total points (+1.5 Units / 2.52% ROI)
  • 25-29 against the Under for game total points (-6.85 Units / -11.54% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the Spread in 25 of their last 68 games (-21.20 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 41 games at home (-19.55 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 29 of their last 61 games (-19.50 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 80 games (-18.65 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 36 of their last 85 games (-18.30 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 29 of their last 85 games (-28.85 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 99 games (-25.60 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 62 games (-22.00 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 88 games (-20.80 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 64 games (-19.75 Units / -28% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks

The Heat are winless (0-3) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394

The Heat are 6-7 (.462) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .560

The Heat were 20-9 (.690) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Heat are 22-7 (.759) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 6th-best in the NBA. The Bucks have allowed 118.9 points per game this season — 8th-worst in the NBA.

Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Bucks were 27-3 (.900) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Bucks were 27-11 (.711) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

The Bucks were 47-8 (.855) when scoring 110 or more points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

The Bucks are 17-5 (.773) when making 15 or more three-pointers this season — 7th-best in the NBA. The Heat have allowed 13.5 made three-pointers per game this season — T-8th-worst in the NBA.

Injury Report: Bucks vs. HeatTuesday‘s Game, Feb. 13

  • Milwaukee Bucks – No Injuries Reported
  • Duncan Robinson (Miami Heat): Illness, Game Time Decision
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat have averaged 43.4 points in the paint per game (1,084 points/25 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.3

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat have averaged 44.1 points in the paint per game (2,908 points/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 1.43 points per shot (3,321 points/2,322 shots) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.32

The Bucks averaged 1.7 second chance points per game (102 points/61 games) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.7

The Bucks have 25.9 free throw attempts per game this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 22.7

The Bucks averaged 6.8 points in the paint per game (414 points/61 games) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.8

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (412 blocks/135 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (169 blocks/53 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (211 blocks/69 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks averaged 39.7 defensive rebounds per game (3,254 rebounds/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Bucks have averaged 38.7 defensive rebounds per game (5,262 rebounds/136 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Bucks have averaged 37.2 defensive rebounds per game (2,008 rebounds/54 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Bucks allowed an average of 1.18 points per shot (4,607 points/3,889 shots) in the first half last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.28


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.