- The Bucks are -5.5 favorites vs. the Heat
- Total (Over/Under): 220.5 points
- Watch the game on SUN | FDWI
The Miami Heat visit Fiserv Forum to take on the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:00pm EST in Milwaukee, WI, WI, USA.
The Bucks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).
The Heat vs Bucks Over/Under is 220.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Heat are 23-30 against the spread, while the Bucks are 25-30 against the spread.
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Heat vs. Bucks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Miami Heat | +5.5 -110 | O 220.5 -105 | +180 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | -5.5 -110 | U 220.5 -115 | -220 |
Bucks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Bucks will win Sunday‘s game with 61.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Bucks.
Bucks vs Heat Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 54.7% confidence.
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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 away games (+21.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 32 of their last 48 away games (+16.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 away games (+13.50 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 16 away games (+11.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+9.80 Units / 19% ROI)
Bucks Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 1H Spread in 30 of their last 47 games (+11.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 27 of their last 34 games at home (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 73 games (+8.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 2Q Spread in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.19 Units / 20% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 23-30 (-10 Units / -16.84% ROI).
- 26-28 against the Moneyline (-7.4 Units / -7.94% ROI)
- 29-25 against the Over for game total points (+1.5 Units / 2.53% ROI)
- 25-29 against the Under for game total points (-6.9 Units / -11.62% ROI)
Milwaukee Bucks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 25-30 (-8 Units / -12.99% ROI).
- 32-24 against the Moneyline (-12.65 Units / -9.15% ROI)
- 27-29 against the Over for game total points (-4.9 Units / -7.95% ROI)
- 29-27 against the Under for game total points (-0.7 Units / -1.14% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Bucks:
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 73 games (-47.30 Units / -26% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 4Q Spread in 34 of their last 88 games (-27.45 Units / -27% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 35 of their last 87 games (-22.70 Units / -23% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 73 games (-19.15 Units / -23% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 57 games (-19.03 Units / -25% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 88 games (-18.83 Units / -19% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 46 away games (-15.70 Units / -28% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 18 of their last 47 away games (-15.40 Units / -28% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 75 games (-15.30 Units / -19% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 18 of their last 46 away games (-14.65 Units / -27% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Keys to Winning for the Milwaukee Bucks
- Player Injuries for Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Milwaukee Bucks Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
- Milwaukee Bucks Defensive stats
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks
The Heat are 3-16 (.158) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers this season — 3rd-worst in the NBA. The Bucks have made 14.5 three-pointers per game this season — 6th-highest in the NBA.
The Heat are 2-13 (.133) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — 9th-worst in the NBA. The Bucks have shot 39% from three this season — 2nd-best in the NBA.
The Heat are 4-14 (.222) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .438
The Heat are 6-22 (.214) when allowing 110 or more points this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .342
Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Bucks are 18-7 (.720) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 9th-best in the NBA. The Heat have averaged 51.8 rebounds/game this season — 10th-lowest in the NBA.
The Bucks are 23-17 (.575) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .493
The Bucks were 10-3 (.769) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544
The Bucks are 48-6 (.889) when shooting 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .776
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 53.2 points per game (9,892 points/186 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.4
The Heat have averaged 5.3 second chance points per game (719 points/135 games) in the first half since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.7
The Heat shot 43% (413/964) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%
The Heat are shooting 83% from the free throw line (1,747/2,102) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 79%
Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Bucks are shooting 39% from three (782/2,021) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%
The Bucks have averaged 11.0 fast break points per game (285 points/26 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.2
The Bucks averaged 1.44 points per shot (1,358 points/940 shots) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.32
The Bucks averaged 1.39 points per shot (4,829 points/3,483 shots) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.31
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (603 blocks/186 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (302 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (482 blocks/135 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (301 blocks/93 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Bucks have averaged 38.2 defensive rebounds per game (7,135 rebounds/187 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3
The Bucks have averaged 7.2 steals per game (389 steals/54 games) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.3
The Bucks have averaged 37.6 defensive rebounds per game (2,032 rebounds/54 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.4
The Bucks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (441 steals/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.8
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