Heat vs Celtics Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Dec. 2

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 02, 2024, 9:00 AM
  • The Celtics are -10.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 220.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | NBSB

The Miami Heat visit TD Garden to take on the Boston Celtics on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Boston, MA.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-105).

The Heat vs Celtics Over/Under is 220.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 8-10 against the spread, while the Celtics are 8-12 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Celtics Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+10.5 -115O 220.5 -110+375
Boston Celtics -10.5 -105U 220.5 -110-500

Celtics vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Monday‘s game with 80.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Celtics.

Celtics vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 68.0% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 43 away games (+16.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 30 of their last 45 games (+15.17 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 47 of their last 77 games (+14.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games (+11.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+9.85 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 64 of their last 100 games (+26.15 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 52 of their last 69 games (+20.87 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 33 games at home (+17.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 64 games (+16.73 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 59 of their last 99 games (+12.05 Units / 10% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 8-10 (-3 Units / -15.15% ROI).

  • 9-9 against the Moneyline (-0.9 Units / -2.83% ROI)
  • 10-8 against the Over for game total points (+1.2 Units / 6.06% ROI)
  • 8-10 against the Under for game total points (-3 Units / -15.15% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 8-12 (-5.2 Units / -23.64% ROI).

  • 16-4 against the Moneyline (-2.45 Units / -2.1% ROI)
  • 10-10 against the Over for game total points (-1 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 10-10 against the Under for game total points (-1 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 100 games (-40.25 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 23 of their last 56 games (-29.22 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 86 games (-27.35 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only covered the 4Q Spread in 20 of their last 56 games (-19.95 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 41 games at home (-19.60 Units / -7% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 77 games (-25.48 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 30 of their last 78 games (-22.95 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 76 games (-21.25 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 1Q Spread in 27 of their last 68 games (-20.10 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 88 games (-18.50 Units / -18% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Heat are 1-5 (.167) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — T-8th-worst in the NBA. The Celtics have shot 38% from three this season — T-8th-best in the NBA.

The Heat are 37-13 (.740) when scoring 110 or more points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .658

The Heat were 19-10 (.655) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .448

The Heat are 2-7 (.222) when allowing 110 or more points this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .348

Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Celtics are 27-4 (.871) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .605

The Celtics are 44-12 (.786) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .538

The Celtics are 69-10 (.873) when scoring 110 or more points since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .658

The Celtics are 40-2 (.952) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .685

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 53.0 points per game (9,433 points/178 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.4

The Heat shot 43% (413/964) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Heat have averaged 53.4 points per game (5,125 points/96 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.4

The Heat averaged 45.1 points in the paint per game (1,850 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have made 16.9 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.9

The Celtics have made 16.5 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.7

The Celtics have made 17.5 three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.1

The Celtics made 16.5 three-pointers per game last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (292 blocks/90 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (578 blocks/178 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (286 blocks/88 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics averaged 37.9 defensive rebounds per game (3,109 rebounds/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics allowed an average of 1.19 points per shot (8,957 points/7,515 shots) last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.28

The Celtics have averaged 37.7 defensive rebounds per game (6,826 rebounds/181 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Celtics averaged 6.6 blocks per game (538 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.