- The Grizzlies are -7.5 favorites vs. the Heat
- Total (Over/Under): 228.5 points
- Watch the game on SUN | WMC | FDSM
The Miami Heat visit FedExForum to take on the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Memphis, TN, USA.
The Grizzlies are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).
The Heat vs Grizzlies Over/Under is 225.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Heat are 29-36 against the spread, while the Grizzlies are 36-30 against the spread.
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Heat vs. Grizzlies Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Miami Heat | +6.5 -105 | O 225.5 -110 | +220 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | -6.5 -115 | U 225.5 -110 | -275 |
Grizzlies vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Grizzlies will win Saturday‘s game with 76.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Grizzlies.
Grizzlies vs Heat Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 62.2% confidence.
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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 28 of their last 46 away games (+16.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 58 games (+13.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 29 of their last 46 away games (+12.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 away games (+12.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 16 of their last 19 away games (+12.55 Units / 57% ROI)
Grizzlies Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the Team Total Over in 51 of their last 82 games (+15.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 32 games at home (+14.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 62 games (+14.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 69 games (+10.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+9.90 Units / 34% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 29-36 (-10.6 Units / -14.59% ROI).
- 29-37 against the Moneyline (-17.25 Units / -15.37% ROI)
- 34-32 against the Over for game total points (-1.2 Units / -1.65% ROI)
- 32-34 against the Under for game total points (-5.4 Units / -7.44% ROI)
Memphis Grizzlies Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Grizzlies have gone 36-30 (+3 Units / 4.08% ROI).
- 42-25 against the Moneyline (+7.05 Units / 4.79% ROI)
- 39-28 against the Over for game total points (+8.2 Units / 11.13% ROI)
- 28-39 against the Under for game total points (-14.9 Units / -20.22% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Grizzlies:
- The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 33 games (-31.10 Units / -53% ROI)
- The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 82 games (-27.37 Units / -29% ROI)
- The Memphis Grizzlies have only covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 35 games (-21.00 Units / -52% ROI)
- The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 42 games at home (-20.42 Units / -42% ROI)
- The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 29 games (-17.75 Units / -43% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 58 games (-21.28 Units / -32% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 35 games (-20.60 Units / -37% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 45 games (-19.77 Units / -36% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 28 games (-16.40 Units / -50% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 39 away games (-16.10 Units / -35% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Keys to Winning for the Memphis Grizzlies
- Player Injuries for Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Memphis Grizzlies Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
- Memphis Grizzlies Defensive stats
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Memphis Grizzlies
The Heat are 5-16 (.238) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .441
The Heat are 27-11 (.711) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .587
The Heat are 6-12 (.333) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .539
The Heat were 28-14 (.667) when they win the turnover margin last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549
Memphis Grizzlies: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Grizzlies were 3-27 (.100) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .317
The Grizzlies are undefeated (7-0) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461
The Grizzlies were 17-19 (.472) when scoring 15 or more second chance points last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .549
The Grizzlies were 9-24 (.273) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .395
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat shot 43% (413/964) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%
The Heat have averaged 5.8 fast break points per game (849 points/147 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1
The Heat averaged 53.3 points per game (4,368 points/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5
The Heat have averaged 11.7 second chance points per game (762 points/65 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1
Memphis Grizzlies Offensive Stats & Trends
The Grizzlies averaged 1.18 points per shot (4,262 points/3,600 shots) at home last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.30
The Grizzlies shot 43% (3,145/7,230) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%
The Grizzlies had a TS% of 48% in the first half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%
The Grizzlies have averaged 56.7 points in the paint per game (3,744 points/66 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.8
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (247 blocks/72 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2
The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (523 blocks/147 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Heat have averaged 3.7 blocks per game (276 blocks/75 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
Memphis Grizzlies Defensive Stats & Trends
The Grizzlies have averaged 6.3 blocks per game (457 blocks/73 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
The Grizzlies have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (394 blocks/66 games) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
The Grizzlies have averaged 36.8 defensive rebounds per game (2,427 rebounds/66 games) this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.4
The Grizzlies averaged 8.2 steals per game (673 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
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