- The Heat are -1.5 favorites vs. the Hawks
- Total (Over/Under): 228.5 points
- Watch the game on FDSE | SUN
The Miami Heat visit State Farm Arena to take on the Atlanta Hawks on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Atlanta, GA, USA.
The Hawks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Heat vs Hawks Over/Under is 230.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Heat are 23-31 against the spread, while the Hawks are 27-30 against the spread.
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Heat vs. Hawks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Miami Heat | +1.5 -110 | O 230.5 -105 | +100 |
| Atlanta Hawks | -1.5 -110 | U 230.5 -115 | -120 |
Hawks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Monday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Hawks.
Hawks vs Heat Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Hawks will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 57.4% confidence.
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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 30 of their last 46 away games (+22.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 32 of their last 49 away games (+15.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 17 away games (+14.70 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 15 of their last 17 away games (+12.70 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 72 games (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
Hawks Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Atlanta Hawks have covered the 4Q Spread in 35 of their last 52 games (+17.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 73 games (+16.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 46 of their last 73 games (+15.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+14.31 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 74 games (+13.30 Units / 12% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 23-31 (-11.1 Units / -18.35% ROI).
- 26-29 against the Moneyline (-8.4 Units / -8.92% ROI)
- 30-25 against the Over for game total points (+2.5 Units / 4.13% ROI)
- 25-30 against the Under for game total points (-8 Units / -13.22% ROI)
Atlanta Hawks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Hawks have gone 27-30 (-6 Units / -9.58% ROI).
- 26-31 against the Moneyline (+7.3 Units / 9.14% ROI)
- 33-24 against the Over for game total points (+6.6 Units / 10.53% ROI)
- 24-33 against the Under for game total points (-12.3 Units / -19.62% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Hawks:
- The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 30 of their last 81 games (-26.85 Units / -29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 75 games (-23.70 Units / -29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 84 games (-18.10 Units / -19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 75 games (-16.90 Units / -20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have only covered the 2Q Spread in 26 of their last 64 games (-16.67 Units / -22% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 47 away games (-16.70 Units / -30% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 88 games (-16.63 Units / -17% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 76 games (-16.40 Units / -20% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 18 of their last 47 away games (-15.80 Units / -29% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 36 of their last 85 games (-15.70 Units / -17% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Keys to Winning for the Atlanta Hawks
- Player Injuries for Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Atlanta Hawks Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
- Atlanta Hawks Defensive stats
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Hawks
The Heat are 3-13 (.188) when allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .242
The Heat are 4-14 (.222) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .438
The Heat were 28-14 (.667) when they win the turnover margin last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549
The Heat are 11-31 (.262) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th-worst in the NBA. The Hawks have made 13.4 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th-highest in the NBA.
Atlanta Hawks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Hawks are 13-10 (.565) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .447
The Hawks were 5-7 (.417) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .466
The Hawks are 33-39 (.458) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .550
The Hawks are 12-22 (.353) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points this season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .426
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 53.2 points per game (9,892 points/186 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.4
The Heat had an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%
The Heat averaged 45.1 points in the paint per game (1,850 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7
The Heat have averaged 11.5 second chance points per game (1,553 points/135 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9
Atlanta Hawks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Hawks averaged 5.5 fast break points per game (454 points/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.8
The Hawks have averaged 116.6 points per game (6,528 points/56 games) this season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4
The Hawks made 13.7 three-pointers per game last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8
The Hawks have averaged 29.3 assists per game (1,639 assists/56 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 26.4
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (603 blocks/186 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (302 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (218 blocks/64 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2
Atlanta Hawks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Hawks have averaged 10.0 steals per game (561 steals/56 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.3
The Hawks allowed opponents to shoot 41% from three (571/1,405) in the second half last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%
The Hawks allowed an eFG% of 59% in the second half last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 54%
The Hawks have 561 steals this season — 2nd most among NBA teams
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