Heat vs Knicks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 27

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 27, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Knicks are -4.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 218.5 points
  • Watch the game on ABC

The Miami Heat visit Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Knicks on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST in New York, NY.

The Knicks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-115).

The Heat vs Knicks Over/Under is 220.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 20-25 against the spread, while the Knicks are 25-18 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Knicks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+4.5 -105O 220.5 -115+165
New York Knicks -4.5 -115U 220.5 -105-200

Knicks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Knicks will win Saturday‘s game with 64.9% confidence, factoring in recent team & player performances for the Heat and Knicks, plus player injuries and defensive & offensive matchups.

Knicks vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 39 away games (+21.15 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 69 games (+18.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 48 of their last 78 games (+16.45 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 29 of their last 46 away games (+13.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 23 of their last 32 games (+13.10 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 50 of their last 85 games (+16.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 36 of their last 56 games (+15.40 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 22 of their last 29 games at home (+14.30 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have covered the Spread in 49 of their last 84 games (+13.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 47 of their last 77 games (+13.65 Units / 16% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 20-25 (-7.45 Units / -15.05% ROI).

  • 24-21 against the Moneyline (-3.15 Units / -4.28% ROI)
  • 19-26 against the Over for game total points (-9.6 Units / -19.39% ROI)
  • 26-19 against the Under for game total points (+5.1 Units / 10.3% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Knicks have gone 25-18 (+5.25 Units / 10.63% ROI).

  • 28-17 against the Moneyline (+7.55 Units / 7.38% ROI)
  • 19-26 against the Over for game total points (-9.6 Units / -19.39% ROI)
  • 26-19 against the Under for game total points (+5.1 Units / 10.3% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 77 games (-21.80 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 88 games (-21.70 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 19 of their last 56 games (-20.65 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 64 games (-18.25 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 72 games (-16.20 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 94 games (-24.30 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 91 games (-23.05 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 29 of their last 77 games (-19.80 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 42 of their last 100 games (-19.35 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 48 games (-19.25 Units / -35% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Knicks

The Heat were 10-1 (.909) when assisting on 30 or more field goals last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .729

The Heat were 16-6 (.727) when forcing 10 or more steals last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .609

The Heat were 20-9 (.690) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Heat are 14-2 (.875) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2022-23 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .791

New York Knicks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Knicks are winless (0-11) when losing the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .258

The Knicks are 15-4 (.789) when making 15 or more three-pointers this season — 6th-best in the NBA. The Heat have allowed 13.5 made three-pointers per game this season — T-8th-worst in the NBA.

The Knicks were 8-2 (.800) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Knicks are 4-10 (.286) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers this season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .362

Injury Report: Knicks vs. HeatSaturday‘s Game, Jan. 27

  • Evan Fournier (New York Knicks): Illness, Game Time Decision
  • DaQuan Jeffries (New York Knicks): Illness, Game Time Decision
  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • R.J. Hampton (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Bam Adebayo (Miami Heat): Hip, Game Time Decision
  • Haywood Highsmith (Miami Heat): Back, Game Time Decision

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat have averaged 10.8 fast break points per game (691 points/64 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.7

The Heat have averaged 53.5 points per game (2,408 points/45 games) in the second half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 57.4

The Heat are shooting 42% (217/511) in close and late situations this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

New York Knicks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Knicks have averaged 8.4 second chance points per game (1,069 points/127 games) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.8

The Knicks have averaged 24.0 assists per game (1,081 assists/45 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 26.6

The Knicks averaged 22.4 assists per game (918 assists/41 games) on the road last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.0

The Knicks have averaged 17.0 second chance points per game (1,037 points/61 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (393 blocks/127 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.3 blocks per game (150 blocks/45 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (196 blocks/64 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

New York Knicks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Knicks averaged 6.4 steals per game (527 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Knicks have averaged 36.3 defensive rebounds per game (4,606 rebounds/127 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Knicks have averaged 6.8 steals per game (864 steals/127 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Knicks have averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (1,615 rebounds/45 games) this season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.