Heat vs Knicks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 29

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 29, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Knicks (43-33) are -5.5 favorites vs. the Heat (40-36)
  • Total (Over/Under): 222.5 points
  • Wednesday, March 29, 2023 at 7:30pm EDT
  • Watch the game on MSG & BSSUN

The Miami Heat visit Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Knicks on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in New York.

The Knicks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Heat vs Knicks Over/Under is 223.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 28-46 against the spread, while the Knicks are 42-32 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Knicks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+4.5 -110O 223.5 -110+150
New York Knicks -4.5 -110U 223.5 -110-185

Knicks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Knicks will win Wednesday‘s game with 59.4% confidence.

Knicks vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Knicks, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 46 of their last 77 games (+15.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 away games (+11.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 48 of their last 83 games (+11.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 18 of their last 24 away games (+11.52 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 46 away games (+11.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have covered the 1H Spread in 51 of their last 80 games (+21.55 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 50 of their last 80 games (+19.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 49 games (+16.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 40 games at home (+12.80 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 48 of their last 81 games (+12.00 Units / 12% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 28-46 (-22.6 Units / -27.02% ROI).

  • 40-36 against the Moneyline (-17.6 Units / -12.22% ROI)
  • 35-40 against the Over for game total points (-9 Units / -10.77% ROI)
  • 40-35 against the Under for game total points (+1.5 Units / 1.79% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Knicks have gone 42-32 (+6.85 Units / 8.19% ROI).

  • 43-33 against the Moneyline (+4.45 Units / 3.64% ROI)
  • 39-35 against the Over for game total points (+0.5 Units / 0.6% ROI)
  • 35-39 against the Under for game total points (-7.9 Units / -9.45% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 68 games (-26.25 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 16 of their last 42 games at home (-19.97 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 81 games (-19.64 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 82 games (-17.98 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 42 games at home (-17.13 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 31 of their last 76 games (-25.26 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 30 of their last 82 games (-25.00 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 96 games (-24.40 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 31 of their last 83 games (-22.80 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 31 of their last 79 games (-22.21 Units / -26% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Knicks

The Heat are 27-16 (.628) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .459

The Heat are 104-75 (.581) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

The Heat are 18-8 (.692) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Heat are 18-11 (.621) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .513

New York Knicks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Knicks are 23-32 (.418) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .453

The Knicks are 1-15 (.062) when losing the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .240

The Knicks are 28-49 (.364) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .458

The Knicks are 15-40 (.273) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .358

Injury Report: Knicks vs. HeatWednesday‘s Game, Mar. 29

  • Derrick Rose (Knicks): Rose is questionable for Wednesday’s (Mar. 29) game against Miami.
  • Jalen Brunson (Knicks): Brunson is questionable for Wednesday’s (Mar. 29) game against Miami.
  • Duane Washington Jr. (Knicks): Washington Jr. is out for Wednesday’s (Mar. 29) game against Miami.
  • Jimmy Butler (Heat): Butler did not play in Tuesday’s (Mar. 28) game against Toronto.
  • Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic is out for Tuesday’s (Mar. 28) game against Toronto and Wednesday’s (Mar. 29) game against New York.

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 109.1 points per game (7,748 points/71 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.5

The Heat have averaged 107.6 points per game (3,658 points/34 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.1

The Heat have averaged 52.2 points per game (3,707 points/71 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat averaged 108.1 points per game (7,781 points/72 games) in the 2020-21 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 111.8

New York Knicks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Knicks have averaged 21.8 assists per game (4,893 assists/224 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.8

The Knicks have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (2,279 assists/ 1,473 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Knicks have averaged 22.3 assists per game (1,559 assists/70 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.1

The Knicks have an eFG% of 51% in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (379 blocks/111 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (771 blocks/225 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (241 blocks/78 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (220 blocks/71 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

New York Knicks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Knicks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (1,502 steals/224 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Knicks have averaged 6.1 steals per game (425 steals/70 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Knicks have averaged 36.9 defensive rebounds per game (5,611 rebounds/152 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.8

The Knicks have averaged 37.2 defensive rebounds per game (8,324 rebounds/224 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36.0


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.