Mavericks vs Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 9

  • The Thunder are -4.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks
  • Total (Over/Under): 218.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Dallas Mavericks visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30pm EDT in Oklahoma City, OK.

The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-115).

The Mavericks vs Thunder Over/Under is 218.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 52-37 against the spread, while the Thunder are 50-36 against the spread.


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Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dallas Mavericks+4.5 -105O 218.5 -110+165
Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 -115U 218.5 -110-200

Thunder vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Thursday‘s game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Mavericks and Thunder.

Thunder vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 62.8% confidence.


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  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 64 games (+17.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 60 games (+16.10 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 28 of their last 40 games (+14.80 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 away games (+9.70 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+9.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 40 games at home (+27.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 3Q Spread in 27 of their last 35 games at home (+18.95 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 4Q Spread in 48 of their last 78 games (+15.30 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+13.70 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+12.65 Units / 26% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 52-37 (+11.3 Units / 11.55% ROI).

  • 54-35 against the Moneyline (+1.5 Units / 0.78% ROI)
  • 40-49 against the Over for game total points (-13.9 Units / -14.2% ROI)
  • 49-40 against the Under for game total points (+5 Units / 5.11% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 50-36 (+10.4 Units / 10.87% ROI).

  • 62-25 against the Moneyline (+21.35 Units / 7.2% ROI)
  • 44-39 against the Over for game total points (+1.1 Units / 1.15% ROI)
  • 39-44 against the Under for game total points (-9.3 Units / -9.73% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 84 games (-22.75 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 87 games (-16.25 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 63 games (-16.15 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 63 games (-14.35 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only covered the 1Q Spread in 25 of their last 57 games (-11.75 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 40 of their last 89 games (-30.85 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 62 games (-25.05 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 66 games (-24.30 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 52 games (-22.50 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 33 of their last 82 games (-20.20 Units / -21% ROI)

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Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

Keys to the game – away

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Thunder are winless (0-5) when scoring fewer than 100 points since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .090

The Thunder are 15-6 (.714) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Thunder are 37-14 (.725) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2022-23 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .590

The Thunder were 20-8 (.714) when winning the rebounding margin last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .634

Injury Report: Thunder vs. MavericksThursday‘s Game, May 9

  • Olivier Sarr (Oklahoma City Thunder): Ankle, Out For Season
  • Greg Brown (Dallas Mavericks): Personal, Game Time Decision
  • Dante Exum (Dallas Mavericks): Foot, Game Time Decision
  • PJ Washington (Dallas Mavericks): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • Maxi Kleber (Dallas Mavericks): Back, Game Time Decision
  • Dereck Lively II (Dallas Mavericks): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Derrick Jones Jr. (Dallas Mavericks): Shoulder, Game Time Decision
  • Daniel Gafford (Dallas Mavericks): Elbow, Game Time Decision
  • Kyrie Irving (Dallas Mavericks): Hamstring, Game Time Decision
  • Luka Doncic (Dallas Mavericks): Ankle, Game Time Decision

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (496 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

The Mavericks averaged 12.2 turnovers per game (1,002 turnovers/82 games) last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

The Mavericks have averaged 43.6 points in the paint per game (3,572 points/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

The Mavericks averaged 40.7 points in the paint per game (1,668 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder are shooting 41% from three (558/1,378) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder have an eFG% of 58% in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

The Thunder are shooting 39% from three (120/305) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%

The Thunder have a TS% of 55% in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 6.3 steals per game (514 steals/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Mavericks have averaged 36.0 defensive rebounds per game (2,951 rebounds/82 games) this season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Mavericks averaged 33.8 defensive rebounds per game (2,774 rebounds/82 games) last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Mavericks averaged 3.7 blocks per game (304 blocks/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder averaged 4.2 blocks per game (341 blocks/82 games) last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Thunder have allowed 18.0 offensive rebounds per game (2,954 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 16.2

The Thunder averaged 8.2 steals per game (676 steals/82 games) last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Thunder have averaged 6.6 blocks per game (538 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1


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