Heat vs Pacers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Nov. 17

min read
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 17, 2024, 3:34 PM
  • The Pacers are -2.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 228.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | FDIN

The Miami Heat visit Gainbridge Fieldhouse to take on the Indiana Pacers on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 5:00pm EST in Indianapolis, IN.

The Pacers are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Heat vs Pacers Over/Under is 228.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 5-6 against the spread, while the Pacers are 5-6 against the spread.


Bet now on Pacers vs Heat and all NBA games with BetMGM


Heat vs. Pacers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+3.5 -110O 228.5 -110+135
Indiana Pacers -3.5 -110U 228.5 -110-165

Pacers vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Pacers will win Sunday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Pacers.

Pacers vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 55.8% confidence.


Bet now on Pacers vs Heat and all NBA games with BetMGM


  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 40 away games (+18.85 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 44 away games (+15.10 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 26 of their last 38 games (+14.55 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games (+14.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 43 of their last 71 games (+13.30 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 54 of their last 85 games (+18.27 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 21 games at home (+14.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 34 games (+13.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games at home (+12.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have covered the 1Q Spread in 28 of their last 43 games (+11.90 Units / 24% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 5-6 (-1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI).

  • 5-6 against the Moneyline (+0.2 Units / 1.06% ROI)
  • 6-5 against the Over for game total points (+0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI)
  • 5-6 against the Under for game total points (-1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pacers have gone 5-6 (-1.6 Units / -12.12% ROI).

  • 5-7 against the Moneyline (-5.55 Units / -26.88% ROI)
  • 8-4 against the Over for game total points (+3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI)
  • 4-8 against the Under for game total points (-4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 85 games (-30.65 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 100 games (-24.50 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 100 games (-23.80 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only covered the 4Q Spread in 35 of their last 87 games (-23.60 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 44 of their last 100 games (-18.02 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 70 games (-23.90 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 26 of their last 71 games (-23.45 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 87 games (-22.45 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 69 games (-19.65 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 85 games (-19.35 Units / -20% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Indiana Pacers

The Heat are 2-7 (.222) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .413

The Heat were 3-9 (.250) when forcing fewer than 5 steals last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .385

The Heat were 33-8 (.805) when scoring 110 or more points last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .659

The Heat were 17-2 (.895) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .789

Indiana Pacers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Pacers were 9-5 (.643) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .532

The Pacers are 15-6 (.714) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .464

The Pacers are 12-31 (.279) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2022-23 season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .329

The Pacers are 26-9 (.743) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th-best in the NBA. The Heat have averaged 49.9 rebounds/game since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th-lowest in the NBA.

Injury Report: Pacers vs. HeatSunday‘s Game, Nov. 17

  • Indiana Pacers – No Injuries Reported
  • Miami Heat – No Injuries Reported

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 52.9 points per game (9,261 points/175 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.4

The Heat have averaged 4.3 second chance points per game (47 points/11 games) in the first half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9

The Heat have averaged 12.4 fast break points per game (2,172 points/175 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

The Heat averaged 11.9 fast break points per game (488 points/41 games) on the road last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.0

Indiana Pacers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers averaged 57.9 points in the paint per game (4,746 points/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.3

The Pacers averaged 29.0 points in the paint per game (2,374 points/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.6

The Pacers averaged 61.5 points per game (5,039 points/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5

The Pacers have averaged 57.4 points in the paint per game (2,756 points/48 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.4

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.3 blocks per game (291 blocks/89 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.3 blocks per game (569 blocks/175 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (326 blocks/93 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

Indiana Pacers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 4.5 blocks per game (54 blocks/12 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Pacers have averaged 5.8 blocks per game (1,013 blocks/176 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Pacers blocked 481 shots last season — 8th most among NBA teams

The Pacers averaged 33.7 defensive rebounds per game (2,763 rebounds/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2


Bet now on Pacers vs Heat and all NBA games with BetMGM


Bet on NBA Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated NBA betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

First Bet Offer BetMGM State Promo Pages $1,500

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.