Heat vs Raptors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 21

  • The are favorites vs. the
  • Total (Over/Under): Total points
  • Watch the game on SUN | SNET

The Miami Heat visit Scotiabank Arena to take on the Toronto Raptors on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Toronto, ON, Canada.

The are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Heat vs Raptors Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 22-30 against the spread, while the Raptors are 32-21 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Raptors Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat O
Toronto Raptors U

Raptors vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Friday‘s game with 77.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Raptors.

Raptors vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 66.5% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 28 of their last 44 away games (+20.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 32 of their last 47 away games (+18.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 away games (+12.50 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 15 away games (+10.70 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+12.95 Units / 72% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have covered the 2Q Spread in 35 of their last 54 games (+12.95 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games (+12.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 61 games (+12.45 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have covered the Spread in 36 of their last 61 games (+10.70 Units / 16% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 22-30 (-11 Units / -18.87% ROI).

  • 25-28 against the Moneyline (-8.4 Units / -9.18% ROI)
  • 28-25 against the Over for game total points (+0.5 Units / 0.86% ROI)
  • 25-28 against the Under for game total points (-5.8 Units / -9.95% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Raptors have gone 32-21 (+8.9 Units / 14.7% ROI).

  • 17-38 against the Moneyline (-4.95 Units / -8.54% ROI)
  • 28-27 against the Over for game total points (-1.7 Units / -2.81% ROI)
  • 27-28 against the Under for game total points (-3.8 Units / -6.28% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 16 of their last 47 games (-19.83 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 16 of their last 43 games at home (-15.15 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 42 games at home (-14.70 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 65 games (-14.35 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 77 games (-12.56 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 87 games (-17.68 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 35 of their last 83 games (-15.60 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 45 away games (-14.35 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 18 of their last 46 away games (-14.25 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 74 games (-14.20 Units / -17% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Toronto Raptors

The Heat are 3-16 (.158) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .352

The Heat are 25-10 (.714) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .586

The Heat were 16-1 (.941) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .822

The Heat were 2-6 (.250) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .414

Toronto Raptors: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Raptors are 1-10 (.091) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .386

The Raptors are 3-21 (.125) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .447

The Raptors are 12-56 (.176) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .448

The Raptors were 2-15 (.118) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 45.1 points in the paint per game (1,850 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7

The Heat have averaged 5.3 second chance points per game (719 points/135 games) in the first half since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.7

The Heat averaged 11.5 second chance points per game (943 points/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8

The Heat averaged 5.4 second chance points per game (441 points/82 games) in the first half last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.6

Toronto Raptors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Raptors have averaged 18.2 fast break points per game (3,433 points/189 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.4

The Raptors have averaged 9.5 fast break points per game (1,804 points/189 games) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Raptors shot 33% from three (435/1,318) at home last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Raptors have averaged 8.6 fast break points per game (1,617 points/189 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.8

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (302 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (603 blocks/186 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (301 blocks/93 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

Toronto Raptors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Raptors have averaged 34.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,890 rebounds/55 games) this season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.4

The Raptors averaged 33.8 defensive rebounds per game (2,769 rebounds/82 games) last season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Raptors stole the ball 633 times last season — 10th most among NBA teams

The Raptors have averaged 33.2 defensive rebounds per game (6,276 rebounds/189 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.