Heat vs Rockets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 5

  • The Heat are -2.5 favorites vs. the Rockets
  • Total (Over/Under): 214.5 points
  • Watch the game on SCHN | SUN

The Miami Heat visit Toyota Center to take on the Houston Rockets on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Houston, TX.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Heat vs Rockets Over/Under is 215.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 36-38 against the spread, while the Rockets are 42-32 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Rockets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat-3.5 -110O 215.5 -105-155
Houston Rockets +3.5 -110U 215.5 -115+125

Rockets vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Friday‘s game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Rockets.

Rockets vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Rockets will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 53.0% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 49 away games (+26.05 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 85 games (+19.90 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 46 games (+16.95 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 56 of their last 100 games (+16.60 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 45 games (+15.25 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have covered the Spread in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+13.90 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+13.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have covered the 3Q Spread in 47 of their last 78 games (+12.20 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+12.15 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+8.45 Units / 13% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 36-38 (-5.8 Units / -6.94% ROI).

  • 42-34 against the Moneyline (-1.5 Units / -1.03% ROI)
  • 30-46 against the Over for game total points (-20.6 Units / -24.64% ROI)
  • 46-30 against the Under for game total points (+13 Units / 15.55% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Rockets have gone 42-32 (+6.8 Units / 8.13% ROI).

  • 38-38 against the Moneyline (+6.55 Units / 5.16% ROI)
  • 37-38 against the Over for game total points (-4.8 Units / -5.74% ROI)
  • 38-37 against the Under for game total points (-2.65 Units / -3.17% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 33 of their last 78 games (-19.10 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only covered the 1H Spread in 26 of their last 65 games (-16.55 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 27 games at home (-15.85 Units / -51% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 78 games (-15.30 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 70 games (-11.95 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 85 games (-28.40 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 96 games (-27.70 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 92 games (-26.30 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 45 games (-22.10 Units / -42% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 87 games (-21.30 Units / -21% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Rockets

The Heat were 16-6 (.727) when forcing 10 or more steals last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .609

The Heat are 13-1 (.929) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .820

The Heat are 16-10 (.615) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .448

The Heat were 12-3 (.800) when making 15 or more three-pointers last season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .700

Houston Rockets: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Rockets were winless (0-5) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Rockets were 15-49 (.234) when they lose the turnover margin last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .460

The Rockets were 6-22 (.214) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .456

The Rockets were 14-28 (.333) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

Injury Report: Rockets vs. HeatFriday‘s Game, Apr. 5

  • Steven Adams (Houston Rockets): Knee, Out For Season
  • Tari Eason (Houston Rockets): Lower Leg, Out
  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 5.3 fast break points per game (837 points/157 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.7

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat have averaged 52.9 points per game (8,305 points/157 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

Houston Rockets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (943 assists/ 666 TOs) on the road last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Rockets had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.3 (887 assists/ 665 TOs) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Rockets had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (1,835 assists/ 1,332 TOs) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Rockets had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.3 (892 assists/ 666 TOs) at home last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (256 blocks/79 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (244 blocks/78 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (500 blocks/157 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

Houston Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets allowed 19.0 fast break points per game (780 points/41 games) on the road last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.3

The Rockets allowed 14.5 made three-pointers per game last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.3

The Rockets allowed a TS% of 55% on the road last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 52%

The Rockets allowed an eFG% of 59% on the road last season — 2nd highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 55%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.