Kings vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 28

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 28, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets are -7.5 favorites vs. the Kings
  • Total (Over/Under): 231.5 points
  • Watch the game on ALT | NSCA

The Sacramento Kings visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EST in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).

The Kings vs Nuggets Over/Under is 231.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Kings are 29-27 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 25-31 against the spread.


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Kings vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Sacramento Kings+7.5 -110O 231.5 -110+230
Denver Nuggets -7.5 -110U 231.5 -110-300

Nuggets vs Kings Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Wednesday‘s game with 82.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Kings and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Kings Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 53.7% confidence.


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  • The Sacramento Kings have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 22 of their last 30 away games (+13.10 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have covered the Spread in 29 of their last 45 away games (+12.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 24 of their last 41 away games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 away games (+9.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.15 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 60 of their last 92 games (+24.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 91 games (+21.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 79 games (+21.80 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 54 of their last 86 games (+19.45 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 43 of their last 71 games (+12.60 Units / 16% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Kings have gone 29-27 (-0.85 Units / -1.35% ROI).

  • 33-24 against the Moneyline (-17.45 Units / -13.81% ROI)
  • 29-26 against the Over for game total points (+0.4 Units / 0.64% ROI)
  • 26-29 against the Under for game total points (-5.9 Units / -9.41% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 25-31 (-9.2 Units / -14.35% ROI).

  • 39-19 against the Moneyline (+9.9 Units / 5.14% ROI)
  • 21-36 against the Over for game total points (-18.6 Units / -29.18% ROI)
  • 36-21 against the Under for game total points (+12.9 Units / 20.22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 98 games (-34.90 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 91 games (-30.70 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 86 games (-27.60 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 2Q Spread in 26 of their last 71 games (-20.25 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 97 games (-19.15 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have only hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 76 games (-36.45 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have only covered the 4Q Spread in 34 of their last 86 games (-23.15 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 39 of their last 84 games (-21.90 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 30 away games (-16.45 Units / -50% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 39 of their last 76 games (-16.20 Units / -12% ROI)

Jump to:

Sacramento Kings: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Kings were 1-11 (.083) when their eFG is 50% or worse last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .223

The Kings are 24-4 (.857) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .595

The Kings are 8-11 (.421) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .538

The Kings were 17-13 (.567) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Sacramento Kings

The Nuggets were 24-7 (.774) when they win the turnover margin last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

The Nuggets are 5-2 (.714) when making 15 or more three-pointers this season — 9th-best in the NBA. The Kings have allowed 13.3 made three-pointers per game this season — T-9th-worst in the NBA.

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 32-11 (.744) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. KingsWednesday‘s Game, Feb. 28

  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
  • Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out
  • Sasha Vezenkov (Sacramento Kings): Ankle, Out

Sacramento Kings Offensive Stats & Trends

The Kings averaged 120.7 points per game (9,898 points/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Kings averaged 123.4 points per game (5,058 points/41 games) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 115.9

The Kings had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.9 (1,058 assists/ 548 TOs) in the second half last season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Kings averaged 59.0 points per game (4,837 points/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,954/5,757) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets averaged 29.9 assists per game (1,227 assists/41 games) at home last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (762 assists/ 305 TOs) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

Sacramento Kings Defensive Stats & Trends

The Kings averaged 3.4 blocks per game (275 blocks/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Kings allowed 10.9 points in the paint per game (698 points/64 games) in close and late situations last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 8.8

The Kings have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (203 blocks/52 games) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Kings have allowed 14.6 offensive rebounds per game (758 rebounds/52 games) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 16.5

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 6.8 steals per game (365 steals/54 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have allowed 11.4 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.5

The Nuggets have allowed a TS% of 51% this season — 6th best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 52%

The Nuggets have allowed 111.0 points per game (5,993 points/54 games) this season — tied for 6th best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 115.5


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.