Mavericks vs Grizzlies Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 6

  • The Grizzlies are -4.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks
  • Total (Over/Under): 231.5 points
  • Watch the game on KFAA | FDSM

The Dallas Mavericks visit FedExForum to take on the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Memphis, TN.

The are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Mavericks vs Grizzlies Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 18-16 against the spread, while the Grizzlies are 23-13 against the spread.


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Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dallas Mavericks O
Memphis Grizzlies U

Grizzlies vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Grizzlies will win Monday‘s game with 75.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Mavericks and Grizzlies.

Grizzlies vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 57.9% confidence.


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  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 4Q Spread in 32 of their last 43 away games (+20.20 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 39 away games (+19.47 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 55 of their last 90 games (+17.15 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 54 of their last 90 games (+16.60 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 98 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have covered the 1Q Spread in 54 of their last 82 games (+25.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 1H Moneyline in 29 of their last 43 games (+17.65 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 51 games (+16.40 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have covered the 1H Spread in 30 of their last 42 games at home (+16.35 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 39 games (+15.54 Units / 30% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 18-16 (+0.4 Units / 1.04% ROI).

  • 20-15 against the Moneyline (-0.6 Units / -0.65% ROI)
  • 18-17 against the Over for game total points (-0.7 Units / -1.82% ROI)
  • 17-18 against the Under for game total points (-2.8 Units / -7.27% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Grizzlies have gone 23-13 (+8.7 Units / 22.03% ROI).

  • 23-13 against the Moneyline (+3.6 Units / 4.59% ROI)
  • 23-13 against the Over for game total points (+8.7 Units / 21.97% ROI)
  • 13-23 against the Under for game total points (-12.3 Units / -31.06% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 83 games (-24.22 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 69 games (-19.20 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 76 games (-18.60 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 31 of their last 78 games (-14.45 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 20 of their last 52 games (-14.20 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 100 games (-31.47 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 43 of their last 95 games (-27.05 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 100 games (-23.90 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 1Q Spread in 35 of their last 85 games (-21.65 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 100 games (-19.15 Units / -16% ROI)

Jump to:

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Memphis Grizzlies

The Mavericks are 11-7 (.611) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .446

The Mavericks are 4-2 (.667) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .555

The Mavericks were 36-10 (.783) when making 15 or more three-pointers last season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .646

The Mavericks are 33-9 (.786) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .693

Memphis Grizzlies: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Grizzlies are 1-20 (.048) when losing the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .246

The Grizzlies were 1-6 (.143) when forcing fewer than 5 steals last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .385

The Grizzlies are 19-5 (.792) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .584

The Grizzlies were 5-20 (.200) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (240 assists/ 95 TOs) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks averaged 119.2 points per game (9,772 points/82 games) last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.3

The Mavericks have averaged 14.8 offensive rebounds per game (2,788 rebounds/188 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 16.4

The Mavericks made 14.7 three-pointers per game last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

Memphis Grizzlies Offensive Stats & Trends

The Grizzlies are shooting 25% from three (28/113) in close and late situations this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 34%

The Grizzlies had an eFG% of 51% last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

The Grizzlies shot 43% (3,145/7,230) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Grizzlies averaged 105.8 points per game (8,677 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.3

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 36.1 defensive rebounds per game (4,218 rebounds/117 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Mavericks averaged 7.0 steals per game (572 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Mavericks have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (209 blocks/35 games) this season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Mavericks have averaged 4.5 blocks per game (432 blocks/95 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

Memphis Grizzlies Defensive Stats & Trends

The Grizzlies have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (559 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Grizzlies averaged 34.0 defensive rebounds per game (2,785 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Grizzlies have averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (1,369 rebounds/36 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.5

The Grizzlies averaged 8.2 steals per game (673 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5


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About the Author

Chase Kiddy

Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.