- The Heat are -3.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks
- Total (Over/Under): 222.5 points
- Watch the game on KFAA | SUN
The Dallas Mavericks visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:00pm EST in Miami, FL.
The – are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().
The Mavericks vs Heat Over/Under is total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 8-7 against the spread, while the Heat are 6-7 against the spread.
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Mavericks vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Dallas Mavericks | O | ||
| Miami Heat | U |
Heat vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Sunday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Mavericks and Heat.
Heat vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 55.5% confidence.
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Mavericks Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 59 of their last 91 games (+23.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 95 games (+19.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 44 of their last 71 games (+16.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 4Q Spread in 22 of their last 31 away games (+12.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 27 away games (+11.87 Units / 38% ROI)
Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 28 of their last 40 games (+16.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 44 of their last 72 games (+13.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+13.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 42 games (+12.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 71 games (+11.30 Units / 14% ROI)
Dallas Mavericks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 8-7 (+0.3 Units / 1.7% ROI).
- 9-7 against the Moneyline (-1.1 Units / -2.2% ROI)
- 8-8 against the Over for game total points (-0.8 Units / -4.55% ROI)
- 8-8 against the Under for game total points (-0.8 Units / -4.55% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 6-7 (-1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI).
- 6-7 against the Moneyline (+0.2 Units / 0.94% ROI)
- 7-6 against the Over for game total points (+0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI)
- 6-7 against the Under for game total points (-1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 72 games (-24.05 Units / -29% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 27 of their last 73 games (-23.60 Units / -28% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 71 games (-21.95 Units / -27% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 87 games (-19.50 Units / -19% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 86 games (-19.15 Units / -19% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Mavericks:
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 93 games (-37.35 Units / -35% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 97 games (-29.00 Units / -27% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 83 games (-25.60 Units / -21% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 83 games (-21.25 Units / -22% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 39 of their last 83 games (-20.60 Units / -14% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Dallas Mavericks
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Player Injuries for Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat
- Dallas Mavericks Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Dallas Mavericks Defensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Mavericks were 28-2 (.933) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .789
The Mavericks were 22-10 (.688) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent last season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566
The Mavericks were 34-12 (.739) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566
The Mavericks are 17-1 (.944) when assisting on 30 or more field goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .694
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks
The Heat were 14-2 (.875) when assisting on 30 or more field goals last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .697
The Heat were 18-7 (.720) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554
The Heat are 1-7 (.125) when allowing 110 or more points this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .350
The Heat are 18-2 (.900) when shooting 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2023-24 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .782
Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Mavericks had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (240 assists/ 95 TOs) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8
The Mavericks had a TS% of 53% last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%
The Mavericks have a TS% of 52% this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%
The Mavericks averaged 5.9 turnovers per game (485 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.7
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 53.0 points per game (9,375 points/177 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.4
The Heat have averaged 11.4 second chance points per game (1,085 points/95 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9
The Heat are shooting 83% from the free throw line (1,645/1,970) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 79%
The Heat averaged 14.6 offensive rebounds per game (1,197 rebounds/82 games) last season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 16.2
Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Mavericks averaged 7.0 steals per game (572 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
The Mavericks have averaged 7.2 steals per game (702 steals/98 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6
The Mavericks have averaged 36.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,525 rebounds/98 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
The Mavericks have averaged 6.8 steals per game (1,216 steals/180 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (572 blocks/177 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (292 blocks/90 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (280 blocks/87 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (172 blocks/49 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
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