Mavericks vs Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Nov. 17

  • The Thunder are -5.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks
  • Total (Over/Under): 229.5 points
  • Watch the game on KFAA | FDOK

The Dallas Mavericks visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Oklahoma City, OK.

The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).

The Mavericks vs Thunder Over/Under is 228.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 5-7 against the spread, while the Thunder are 9-4 against the spread.


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Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dallas Mavericks+7.5 -110O 228.5 -115+240
Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5 -110U 228.5 -105-300

Thunder vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Sunday‘s game with 78.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Mavericks and Thunder.

Thunder vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 57.1% confidence.


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  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 92 games (+22.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 57 of their last 88 games (+22.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 4Q Spread in 22 of their last 29 away games (+14.95 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 away games (+13.87 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 41 of their last 68 games (+13.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 45 games at home (+25.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 3Q Spread in 31 of their last 45 games at home (+16.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.20 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games at home (+9.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 4Q Spread in 46 of their last 83 games (+8.77 Units / 9% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 5-7 (-2.7 Units / -18.88% ROI).

  • 6-7 against the Moneyline (-6.15 Units / -15.57% ROI)
  • 5-8 against the Over for game total points (-3.8 Units / -26.57% ROI)
  • 8-5 against the Under for game total points (+2.5 Units / 17.48% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 9-4 (+4.6 Units / 32.17% ROI).

  • 11-2 against the Moneyline (+5.95 Units / 10.33% ROI)
  • 6-7 against the Over for game total points (-1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI)
  • 7-6 against the Under for game total points (+0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 81 games (-17.30 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 93 games (-16.13 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 65 games (-15.13 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 30 of their last 69 games (-15.05 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 83 games (-13.95 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 90 games (-36.10 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 94 games (-32.00 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 34 of their last 80 games (-29.30 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 36 of their last 80 games (-24.65 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 80 games (-24.25 Units / -26% ROI)

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Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Mavericks are 25-8 (.758) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th-best in the NBA. The Thunder have averaged 49.4 rebounds/game since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th-lowest in the NBA.

The Mavericks are 38-11 (.776) when making 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th-best in the NBA. The Thunder have allowed 13.3 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th-worst in the NBA.

The Mavericks are 17-1 (.944) when assisting on 30 or more field goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .694

The Mavericks are 38-11 (.776) when making 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .647

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Thunder were 24-3 (.889) when winning the rebounding margin last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

The Thunder are 27-6 (.818) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .606

The Thunder were 14-3 (.824) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .532

The Thunder are 60-24 (.714) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .511

Injury Report: Thunder vs. MavericksSunday‘s Game, Nov. 17

  • Oklahoma City Thunder – No Injuries Reported
  • Dallas Mavericks – No Injuries Reported

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (240 assists/ 95 TOs) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks have averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (1,057 turnovers/177 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9

The Mavericks have averaged 12.5 turnovers per game (2,214 turnovers/177 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

The Mavericks made 14.7 three-pointers per game last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder had a TS% of 55% in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Thunder shot 41% from three (558/1,378) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder had an eFG% of 58% in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

The Thunder have averaged 11.8 turnovers per game (153 turnovers/13 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.8

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 4.7 blocks per game (218 blocks/46 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Mavericks have averaged 7.1 steals per game (675 steals/95 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Mavericks averaged 36.0 defensive rebounds per game (2,951 rebounds/82 games) last season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Mavericks have averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (3,412 rebounds/95 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 12.2 steals per game (158 steals/13 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.3

The Thunder have allowed an eFG% of 49% this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 54%

The Thunder have allowed opponents to shoot 41% (464/1,119) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 46%

The Thunder have averaged 7.3 blocks per game (95 blocks/13 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2


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