- The Nuggets are -3.5 favorites vs. the Heat
- Total (Over/Under): 215.5 points
- Watch the game on ESPN | SUN | ALT
The Denver Nuggets visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Miami, FL.
The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Nuggets vs Heat Over/Under is 217.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 29-34 against the spread, while the Heat are 31-32 against the spread.
Bet now on Heat vs Nuggets and all NBA games with BetMGM
Nuggets vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Denver Nuggets | -3.5 -110 | O 217.5 -110 | -160 |
Miami Heat | +3.5 -110 | U 217.5 -110 | +135 |
Heat vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Wednesday‘s game with 69.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Heat.
Heat vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.
Bet now on Heat vs Nuggets and all NBA games with BetMGM
Nuggets Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 86 games (+24.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 64 of their last 99 games (+23.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 98 games (+19.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 55 of their last 93 games (+14.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 37 away games (+13.40 Units / 31% ROI)
Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 73 games (+20.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 51 of their last 88 games (+19.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 94 games (+19.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 57 of their last 96 games (+17.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 34 games (+16.70 Units / 42% ROI)
Denver Nuggets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 29-34 (-8.4 Units / -11.74% ROI).
- 45-20 against the Moneyline (+12.2 Units / 5.34% ROI)
- 25-38 against the Over for game total points (-16.8 Units / -23.48% ROI)
- 38-25 against the Under for game total points (+10.55 Units / 14.77% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 31-32 (-4.2 Units / -5.97% ROI).
- 35-29 against the Moneyline (-2.8 Units / -2.47% ROI)
- 24-40 against the Over for game total points (-20 Units / -28.41% ROI)
- 40-24 against the Under for game total points (+13.6 Units / 19.32% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 35 of their last 96 games (-29.60 Units / -27% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 73 games (-27.80 Units / -35% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 99 games (-25.00 Units / -22% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 80 games (-24.50 Units / -27% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 75 games (-20.35 Units / -24% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Nuggets:
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 99 games (-37.60 Units / -33% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 98 games (-28.90 Units / -27% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 93 games (-26.10 Units / -25% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 56 of their last 99 games (-18.60 Units / -9% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 37 away games (-18.45 Units / -44% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Denver Nuggets
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Player Injuries for Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
- Denver Nuggets Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Denver Nuggets Defensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556
The Nuggets were 24-7 (.774) when they win the turnover margin last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540
The Nuggets are 15-4 (.789) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .551
The Nuggets are 33-10 (.767) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 8th-best in the NBA. The Heat have averaged 49.7 rebounds/game this season — 5th-lowest in the NBA.
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets
The Heat are 1-6 (.143) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .404
The Heat are winless (0-3) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394
The Heat were 12-8 (.600) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466
The Heat are 13-6 (.684) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .562
Injury Report: Heat vs. Nuggets – Wednesday‘s Game, Mar. 13
- Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
- Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
- Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
- Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
- Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
- Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
- Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
- Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
- Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out
Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%
The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,954/5,757) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%
The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%
The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (1,548 assists/ 682 TOs) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1
The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7
The Heat are shooting 45% (2,537/5,644) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%
The Heat have averaged 53.2 points per game (7,176 points/135 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.6
Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets have averaged 6.8 steals per game (365 steals/54 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4
The Nuggets have allowed 11.4 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.5
The Nuggets allowed opponents to shoot 34% from three (933/2,711) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%
The Nuggets have allowed 11.2 made three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.3
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (169 blocks/53 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2
The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (201 blocks/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8
The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (412 blocks/135 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
Bet now on Heat vs Nuggets and all NBA games with BetMGM
Bet on NBA Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated NBA betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
![5-150-new-customer-offer-betmgm betmgm-nco-jamie-foxx](https://ekcfbmsotzc.exactdn.com/en/blog/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/5-150-new-customer-offer-betmgm.jpg?strip=all&lossy=1&ssl=1)