Nuggets vs Pacers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 23

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 23, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets are -4.5 favorites vs. the Pacers
  • Total (Over/Under): 240.5 points
  • Watch the game on BSIN | ALT

The Denver Nuggets visit Gainbridge Fieldhouse to take on the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Indianapolis, IN.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-115).

The Nuggets vs Pacers Over/Under is 237.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 19-24 against the spread, while the Pacers are 24-18 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Pacers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets-4.5 -115O 237.5 -110-200
Indiana Pacers +4.5 -105U 237.5 -110+165

Pacers vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Tuesday‘s game with 61.8% confidence, factoring in recent team & player performances for the Nuggets and Pacers, plus player injuries and defensive & offensive matchups.

Pacers vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pacers will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 54.9% confidence.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 65 of their last 99 games (+26.90 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 65 games (+19.25 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 34 away games (+17.10 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+16.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 77 games (+16.20 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 45 of their last 69 games (+19.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 67 games (+17.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 39 of their last 62 games (+14.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 31 games at home (+14.15 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 22 games at home (+14.05 Units / 46% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 19-24 (-7.5 Units / -15.4% ROI).

  • 30-14 against the Moneyline (+7.35 Units / 5.3% ROI)
  • 17-26 against the Over for game total points (-11.6 Units / -23.99% ROI)
  • 26-17 against the Under for game total points (+7.3 Units / 15.08% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pacers have gone 24-18 (+4.2 Units / 8.68% ROI).

  • 24-20 against the Moneyline (-0.2 Units / -0.27% ROI)
  • 25-17 against the Over for game total points (+6.25 Units / 12.89% ROI)
  • 17-25 against the Under for game total points (-10.45 Units / -21.64% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 67 games (-27.65 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 77 games (-25.60 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 24 of their last 66 games (-21.30 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 33 games (-21.00 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 34 games at home (-19.25 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 99 games (-38.25 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 88 games (-23.80 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 77 games (-23.70 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 34 away games (-20.45 Units / -55% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 44 of their last 99 games (-20.15 Units / -16% ROI)

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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Indiana Pacers

The Nuggets are 22-8 (.733) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 9th-best in the NBA. The Pacers have averaged 48.8 rebounds/game this season — 4th-lowest in the NBA.

The Nuggets are 16-3 (.842) when shooting 40% or better from three this season — 4th-best in the NBA. The Pacers have allowed opponents to shoot 38% from three this season — T-9th-worst in the NBA.

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 31-10 (.756) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .552

Indiana Pacers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Pacers are 12-6 (.667) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .570

The Pacers are 1-4 (.200) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .416

The Pacers were 13-26 (.333) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .442

The Pacers were 16-20 (.444) when scoring 15 or more second chance points last season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .531

Injury Report: Pacers vs. NuggetsTuesday‘s Game, Jan. 23

  • Jalen Smith (Indiana Pacers): Heel, Out
  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 52% (2,785/5,407) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets are shooting 50% (5,522/10,994) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,915/5,684) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

Indiana Pacers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 63.3 points per game (2,720 points/43 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 57.4

The Pacers averaged 3.1 fast break points per game (204 points/66 games) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Pacers have averaged 17.7 fast break points per game (2,213 points/125 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

The Pacers are shooting 51% (2,009/3,977) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 7.0 steals per game (308 steals/44 games) this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have allowed 11.4 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.5

The Nuggets have averaged 4.6 blocks per game (284 blocks/62 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Nuggets have allowed 13.5 fast break points per game (595 points/44 games) this season — tied for 8th best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.2

Indiana Pacers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have allowed 60.4 points in the paint per game (2,598 points/43 games) this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 50.3

The Pacers averaged 33.3 defensive rebounds per game (2,730 rebounds/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pacers have allowed 10.8 made three-pointers per game this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.9

The Pacers have averaged 7.9 steals per game (338 steals/43 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.